출처: Block Media
Bitcoin’s Journey to a New All-Time High Faces Delays Amid Market Instability
Bitcoin’s trajectory towards setting a new all-time high has encountered fresh challenges due to heightened market turbulence. According to an in-depth analysis by Cointelegraph, last Friday’s sudden cryptocurrency market selloff wiped approximately $19 billion from the total market valuation. Despite this sharp decline, Bitcoin (BTC) demonstrated significant resilience, recapturing the $114,000 mark within just 48 hours. However, persistent issues in the derivatives market, ambiguous arbitrage opportunities, and a rise in negative funding rates are expected to prolong Bitcoin’s push to breach the $125,000 threshold.
U.S. Economic Factors and Geopolitical Tensions Create Headwinds for Bitcoin
Economic instability in the United States and deteriorating U.S.-China relations have contributed to the headwinds slowing Bitcoin’s upward momentum. Cointelegraph’s analysis flagged signs of a softening U.S. economy, as evidenced by weaker labor market growth. Data from The Wall Street Journal revealed that U.S. job creation in September dipped to just 17,000 new roles, compared to 22,000 in August, indicating a decelerating trend in employment expansion.
Investor concerns have shifted toward safer assets, reflected in a surge in demand for U.S. Treasury bonds. Yields on these bonds dropped to 3.5%, highlighting a risk-averse atmosphere. Further exacerbating market uncertainty is the upcoming November 10 expiration of a trade tariff reprieve between the U.S. and China, raising the specter of renewed economic conflict.
Adding to the unease, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Besent recently labeled China’s restrictions on advanced material exports as “provocative.” These export limitations complicate authorization processes for international companies, worsening tensions between the two nations. The lack of visible progress toward resolving these disputes has fueled doubts about the potential for economic recovery between the two superpowers.
Uncertainty in the market has been further aggravated by the delay in critical U.S. economic data such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and wholesale cost figures due to the U.S. government shutdown. This data gap has muddled expectations around Federal Reserve policy decisions, with Chair Jerome Powell’s forthcoming speech in focus. Consequently, a cautious mood prevails in financial markets, dampening risk appetite and indirectly affecting Bitcoin’s recovery.
Challenges in the Bitcoin Derivatives Market
The dynamics within Bitcoin’s derivatives market have posed additional hurdles to its recovery. Cointelegraph noted that, while there remains potential for easing tensions between the U.S. and China, Bitcoin derivatives traders continue to adopt a cautious approach. A persistent mismatch between spot Bitcoin prices and perpetual futures contracts reflects ongoing concerns about market inefficiencies, subdued arbitrage trading, and low market maker engagement.
A critical indicator of trouble is the prevailing negative funding rates for Bitcoin perpetual futures on leading exchanges like Binance. This scenario forces short sellers to bear the funding costs — an unusual dynamic further highlighting traders' hesitancy. On the other hand, other platforms exhibit positive funding rates, creating arbitrage opportunities. However, these are not being fully exploited, hinting at limited liquidity and counterparty risk concerns.
Market expert Joe McCann, founder of Asymmetric Financial, speculated that the flash crash on Friday may have been exacerbated by a liquidity gap involving a major market maker. This imbalance likely triggered extraordinary price volatility and sparked fresh criticisms of derivative exchanges’ liquidation mechanisms and pricing methodologies.
Despite these challenges, Bitcoin’s unique position as a decentralized and finite asset continues to attract long-term investors. However, the sharp decline in short-term risk sentiment suggests that it will likely take weeks, if not months, for Bitcoin to resume a sustained upward trajectory towards breaking its previous record highs.
Disclaimer:
This material is intended solely for informational purposes and is not designed to provide legal, financial, or investment advice. The views expressed herein represent those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official perspective of Cointelegraph.
