Bitcoin’s Path to $644,000: A Long-term Projection Rooted in Market Fundamentals

Bitcoin (BTC) holds the potential to achieve a milestone price of $644,000 per coin if its market capitalization scales to half of gold’s current valuation, according to a recent projection by Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Asset Research at VanEck. Sigel’s assessment highlights Bitcoin’s growing stature as a store of wealth alongside precious metals, particularly gold.

Bitcoin’s Valuation vs. Gold: A Comparative Forecast

In an analysis posted on November 7 via X (formerly Twitter), Sigel stated, “Given gold’s market capitalization of around $26 trillion, Bitcoin could reach a price of $644,000 per coin if it manages to capture half of that market.” At present, Bitcoin’s market capitalization stands at approximately $2.48 trillion, as per CoinGecko data, marking a 12% increase over the preceding month.

This ambitious forecast underlines Bitcoin’s potential as a competitor to gold in the realm of wealth preservation, but achieving such growth depends on widespread adoption and its ability to evolve as a trusted asset for institutional and retail investors.

Adoption Timeline: Patience is Key

While many industry experts endorse Sigel’s projection as directionally feasible, they caution that the timeline for Bitcoin to reach this valuation could be extended over several years.

Derrick Lim, Head of Research at Kaladan, remarked, “For Bitcoin to reach half of gold’s current market capitalization, it would need to increase approximately 5.6 times based on present levels. However, this growth is unlikely to mirror the explosive gains of its earlier cycles. Instead, Bitcoin is expected to progress incrementally, advancing in $50,000 to $60,000 price intervals.” Lim added that this steady trajectory could span five to ten years as adoption gathers pace and market dynamics stabilize.

Similarly, major investment firms foresee Bitcoin capturing 30% to 50% of the gold market, with an eventual parity in market capitalization potentially placing Bitcoin’s price in the $300,000 to $500,000 range over the next decade.

Supply Mechanics and Historical Trends

Bitcoin follows a predictable supply mechanism designed to induce scarcity, with halving events playing a pivotal role in shaping its price cycles. These events occur approximately every four years, cutting block rewards for miners in half and reducing the rate at which new coins are introduced to the market. Historically, Bitcoin’s price peaks have been observed 500 to 550 days post-halving, but deviations from this trend are anticipated in the current cycle.

Ryan McMillan, Chief Investment Officer at Merkle Tree Capital, noted that this cycle signals a shift in Bitcoin’s market dynamics. “Unlike previous cycles defined by speculative fervor, the current trajectory reflects a maturing asset class. With supply constraints in place and steadier price progressions, Bitcoin is gradually establishing a stable foundation for long-term growth,” McMillan explained.

Industry analysts suggest that Bitcoin’s fixed supply could further amplify its appeal in an inflationary global economy, while historical patterns of price surges around supply halvings continue to attract long-term investors.

Bitcoin’s Evolving Role as “Digital Gold”

As Bitcoin adoption deepens, its comparison to gold as a digital alternative becomes increasingly relevant. Early adopters and institutional investors alike view Bitcoin as fulfilling many of the same functions as gold, such as acting as a hedge against inflation, preserving wealth, and providing portfolio diversification.

However, analysts stress that reaching parity with gold’s market cap will require a steady accumulation of value and broader public trust in its ability to serve as a secure asset. This transition hinges on patience and a long-term perspective, particularly as regulatory frameworks and technological developments shape the asset’s future.

Over the next decade, market participants anticipate Bitcoin will cement its status as “digital gold,” gradually edging closer to gold’s dominance in the global store-of-value ecosystem. For investors, understanding the asset’s fixed supply mechanics, historical trends, and progressive mainstream adoption will prove essential for navigating this transformative journey.

Bitcoin’s ultimate rise to a $644,000 valuation remains contingent on sustained adoption and the evolving dynamics of institutional and retail participation. As the crypto landscape matures, patience and strategic outlook will remain critical drivers of success for long-term investors.