Bitcoin Faces Decline Amid Federal Reserve Rate Cut Ambiguity

Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Market Under Pressure

Bitcoin (BTC) remains on a downward trajectory following remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who tempered expectations for a possible interest rate reduction in December. This cautious outlook weighed heavily on Bitcoin's performance, despite sustained strength in the U.S. technology stock sector.

As of October 30 at 8:30 a.m. KST, Bitcoin was trading at 164.66 million KRW on South Korea’s leading crypto exchange Upbit, reflecting a 2.14% drop compared to its price at 9 a.m. the previous day. Similarly, Bitcoin fell by 2.1% globally to $11,506 on Binance. Ethereum (ETH) dropped 1.53% to $3,916, while XRP declined 1.46%, settling at $2.57.

Market liquidation data adds further insight into this downturn. According to Coinglass, over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin positions worth approximately $219.7 million ($313.6 billion KRW) were liquidated, with 82.6% tied to long positions. Across the broader digital asset landscape, total liquidations amounted to a staggering $564.03 million ($805.2 billion KRW), highlighting mounting selling pressure across the market.

Wall Street Wrestles with Uncertainty Over Rate Cuts

The ambiguity surrounding Federal Reserve policy caused Wall Street to deliver mixed results amid tepid investor sentiment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 74.37 points or 0.16%, while the S&P 500 edged down by 0.30 points. On the contrary, the Nasdaq Composite stood out, gaining 130.98 points—or 0.55%.

At the October 30 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the Federal Reserve announced a modest 25-basis-point decrease in its benchmark interest rate, reducing it to a range of 3.75%–4.0%. Despite this measure, Powell expressed reservations about further rate cuts in December, emphasizing divergent perspectives among Fed policymakers. This caution has sparked uncertainty among investors, dampening market confidence.

Digital Asset Struggles Contrast Traditional Market Momentum

The U.S. equity markets celebrated record highs, yet the cryptocurrency sector continued to face headwinds. Key digital assets and associated public companies experienced significant declines against a backdrop of stagnating momentum. For instance, crypto mining firms like Bitfarms and CleanSpark saw stock prices drop by between 4% and 5%. Galaxy Digital took an even bigger hit, shedding 8% following the announcement of plans to raise $1.15 billion in capital. Meanwhile, MicroStrategy observed its stock price decline by 3.7%.

Market analysis by Bitfinex signaled that Bitcoin's recovery from earlier losses in October could remain fragile. The report cautioned, “For Bitcoin to sustain a bullish outlook, it must hold above the average acquisition price of $113,600 reported for short-term holders. Failure to do so could pave the way for additional corrections down to $97,500.”

Historical October Bitcoin Trends Falter

October, historically marked by gains for Bitcoin, failed to live up to its reputation this year. In what has been lauded as Bitcoin’s “golden week” during the final week of October, the cryptocurrency historically averages a 7% growth during this window. However, Bitcoin failed to maintain critical support above the $113,000 threshold, underscoring instability amid broader market turbulence.

Economist Timothy Peterson offered insight on Bitcoin’s cyclical patterns, stating, “October 29 typically marks the end of one of Bitcoin’s three golden cycles, where the cryptocurrency historically records a 7% gain over seven days. The other cycles occur in February and March. This October’s approximate gains of 4.5% fell short of historical averages, but Bitcoin’s longer-term upward trends remain intact.” He speculated that seasonal patterns could still propel Bitcoin to surpass its previous all-time high of $160,000 in December.

Fear & Greed Index Reflects Waning Sentiment

Market sentiment reflects mounting anxiety, as demonstrated by the Alternative Fear & Greed Index for the cryptocurrency sector. This tool, which gauges investor attitudes on a scale from 0 to 100, showed a decline from 50 (“Neutral”) to 42 (“Fear”) as of October 30. A drop toward zero indicates stronger selling pressure, while scores closer to 100 signify heightened buying interest.

This substantial sentiment shift toward cautiousness underscores growing concerns among investors about Bitcoin’s ability to maintain upward momentum. Combined with wider macroeconomic uncertainty, these factors could create challenges for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies heading into the remainder of the year.

Conclusion: Uncertain Path for Bitcoin Moving Forward

As Federal Reserve policy and economic uncertainties ripple across the financial landscape, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin face the challenging task of regaining positive momentum. Despite historical patterns of strength in October and long-term growth prospects, Bitcoin’s inability to break critical resistance levels suggests that volatility may persist. For investors eyeing the crypto market, cautious optimism prevails, with attention focused on potential influences like interest rate decisions and evolving sentiment indicators. While Bitcoin’s underlying bullish cycles remain intact, immediate hurdles loom large as the year-end approaches.