출처: Block Media
Cryptocurrency Market Faces Uncertainty Ahead of FOMC Decision
The global cryptocurrency market in New York experienced notable declines on October 28 as it grappled with directionless trading ahead of the impending U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Bitcoin (BTC), after briefly climbing above $115,000 intraday in an attempted rally, retreated to $112,635 by the end of the trading session, marking a 1.84% loss compared to the previous day, according to CoinMarketCap. Ethereum (ETH) similarly failed to sustain key price levels, dropping 3.94% to $3,984—a dip below its psychological $4,000 support level.
While weekly gains remain intact for Bitcoin and Ethereum, the current market sentiment suggests increasing concerns of a short-term correction phase. Major altcoins mirrored the downward trend, amplifying fears of a broader market downturn. Dogecoin (-4.41%), Cardano (-4.07%), Solana (-3.09%), Ripple (-1.75%), and BNB (-2.48%) posted significant losses, demonstrating the bearish momentum among digital asset investors.
Weak Sentiment Extends to Derivatives Market
The bearish trend is equally evident in the cryptocurrency derivatives market. Bitcoin futures contracts listed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) showed uniform declines across near-term and long-term expirations: October contracts settled at $113,105 (-1.71%), November contracts at $113,670 (-1.73%), and December contracts at $114,970 (-1.13%). Similarly, Ethereum futures recorded sharper falls, with October contracts closing at $4,019 (-4.26%), November at $4,038.5 (-4.37%), and December at $4,063.5 (-4.38%). These consistent losses reflect mounting selling pressure and hesitancy regarding the market’s forward outlook as traders reposition themselves ahead of macroeconomic events.
Investor Focus Shifts to FOMC Decision and Quantitative Policy
The upcoming FOMC meeting is now dominating investor attention. While markets have priced in a likely quarter-point (25 basis points) interest rate cut, with CME FedWatch pegging the probability at 97.8%, the spotlight has shifted to speculation on whether the Federal Reserve will declare an end to quantitative tightening (QT). Such a decision could reshape medium-term dynamics across the cryptocurrency sector by altering liquidity conditions.
Dragos Bitwise, the European Research Head at Bitwise Asset Management, highlighted the potentially transformative implications of ending QT in a statement: “A halt in QT might signal the Federal Reserve’s readiness to accommodate broader inflation ranges, fostering a liquidity environment favorable for digital assets.” He further linked historical trends of quantitative easing (QE) announcements to immediate upticks in inflation expectations, noting how these macroeconomic shifts tend to buoy cryptocurrency prices.
Major financial institutions, including JPMorgan and Bank of America, have speculated that the Federal Reserve could cease QT by the end of this year or in early 2024. Such a development would not only affect liquidity across traditional markets but would likely have meaningful ramifications for digital assets as well.
Correction or Early Signs of a Market Downturn?
Despite the widespread selling, some analysts view the current pullback as a temporary market correction driven by pre-FOMC uncertainty rather than as the onset of an extended bearish phase. Cryptocurrency analyst Michaël van de Poppe addressed the situation on X (formerly Twitter), stating, “There’s nothing catastrophic happening in the market right now. This is simply a typical correction ahead of the FOMC meeting.” He added, “Bitcoin is attempting to establish support at $112,000, and if this level holds, the market could shift back into an upward trend.”
However, uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve’s impending monetary moves continue to stoke short-term volatility across cryptocurrency markets, leaving investors wary of broader macroeconomic risks.
Macroeconomic Conditions Provide Support but Limit Upside Potential
The decline in U.S. Treasury yields and the weaker dollar should, in theory, provide some tailwinds for cryptocurrencies. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 3.974%, dropping by 0.33 percentage points compared to the previous day, while the dollar index (DXY) edged down 0.13% to 98.305. These dynamics historically create favorable conditions for digital asset performance, as reduced yields and a weaker dollar enhance purchasing power and capital deployment into higher-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.
Despite these encouraging macroeconomic trends, analysts note that markets have largely priced in the effects, leaving limited room for sustained bullish momentum in the near term. With investors focused on the Federal Reserve’s policy direction, it remains unclear whether these macro factors can significantly bolster sentiment.
Conclusion: Uncertain Path Ahead for Cryptocurrency Markets
As the cryptocurrency market anticipates key announcements from the Federal Reserve, volatility remains the defining feature of the short-term outlook. With macroeconomic indicators playing a supportive role yet failing to catalyze major price recoveries, the long-term implications of an end to QT—and the broader monetary policy stance—will shape the trajectory of digital assets. For now, investors brace themselves for continued swings, while analysts debate whether crypto's recent performance marks a temporary correction or the early stages of a more pronounced slide.
