Bitcoin Price Target of $200,000 by Q4 2025: Insights from Tiger Research Report

Tiger Research’s comprehensive Q4 2025 Bitcoin (BTC) Outlook Report predicts a bullish future for BTC, projecting a price target of $200,000. This optimism is grounded in sustained institutional demand amid market volatility, macroeconomic liquidity trends, and significant activity in spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The report identifies robust institutional accumulation, favorable market corrections, and a supportive macroeconomic environment as key drivers for Bitcoin’s upward trajectory.

Institutional Investors Bolster Bitcoin Adoption Despite Volatility

Bitcoin’s price fluctuations in 2025 have not deterred institutional interest. During Q3, spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted net inflows of $7.8 billion—a slight decrease from the $12.4 billion recorded in Q2 but still indicative of strong institutional appetite. The momentum strengthened in early Q4, with $3.2 billion in weekly inflows during the first week of October alone, representing the highest level in 2025.

MicroStrategy (MSTR), a longtime advocate of Bitcoin, also demonstrated its strong confidence in the cryptocurrency market. In October, the company added 388 BTC to its holdings—acquiring 220 BTC on October 13 and an additional 168 BTC on October 20. This strategic purchase reinforces the view that institutional players are increasingly adopting Bitcoin as a long-term asset despite market uncertainty.

Bitcoin Market Pullback Promotes Sustainability

Following Bitcoin’s peak in early October, the market experienced a correction that alleviated previous concerns about overheating. The MVRV-Z Score, an indicator comparing Bitcoin’s market capitalization to its realized value, reached a restrained level of 2.31, showing far less extreme overvaluation than during Q3. At the same time, the adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) maintained an equilibrium at 1.03, signaling balanced activity between realized gains and unrealized profits.

While broader network activity such as active users and transaction counts appeared to plateau, transaction volume exhibited notable growth, hinting at increasing institutional involvement. However, a rise in BTC transfers to centralized exchanges suggests some selling pressure. Consequently, analysts advise caution in interpreting these trends solely as bullish signals.

Macroeconomic Trends Bolstering Bitcoin's Growth

The global economic environment has presented a favorable backdrop for risk assets like Bitcoin. The world’s M2 money supply surged past $96 trillion in 2025, setting an all-time high and highlighting greater liquidity in financial markets. Simultaneously, the Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by 25 basis points in September to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, with projections for one or two additional cuts by the end of the year. This easing of monetary policy is expected to fuel investment in risk-on assets like Bitcoin.

Moreover, recovery across global labor markets and broad economic stabilization have reinforced a bullish macroeconomic environment conducive to Bitcoin’s price appreciation. The report underscores institutional investors’ growing ability to leverage these favorable conditions for strategic BTC accumulation.

Structural Changes Point to Institutional Dominance

A key inflection point in Bitcoin markets occurred in October when an intraday drawdown of 14% was triggered by liquidations on centralized exchanges. This marked a structural shift in Bitcoin’s investor base from retail dominance to institutional prevalence, solidifying institutions’ role in mitigating volatility and stabilizing the market.

Unlike retail-driven panic seen during the 2021 market downturns, institutional investors viewed the drawdown as an opportunity to buy Bitcoin at discounted prices. This shift reflects their ability to endure short-term corrections without undermining long-term market confidence. Institutional activity during sideways trends could ultimately fuel Bitcoin’s next major rally.

Crucially, institutions recognize that healthy corrections serve to eliminate speculative excess and stabilize asset prices over the long term. As retail sentiment remains fragile in the face of volatility, institutional dominance underscores Bitcoin’s evolution into a more mature and resilient market.

Upgraded Bitcoin Price Target: $200,000

Tiger Research has revised its price target for Bitcoin upward to $200,000 for Q4 2025, leveraging updated intrinsic and macroeconomic valuation metrics. The base valuation increased by 14%, rising from $135,000 in Q2 to $154,000 in Q3. This adjustment reflects Bitcoin’s sustained institutional accumulation and its strengthened position as a leading asset class.

Additionally, the report applies a macro adjustment factor of +35%, accounting for enhanced global liquidity conditions and consistent institutional investment flows. However, a fundamentals adjustment factor of -2% reflects short-term concerns, such as plateauing network growth and rising BTC deposits into centralized exchanges.

Despite potential short-term corrections stemming from overheating indicators, these are viewed by Tiger Research as brief consolidation phases rather than negative trend reversals. The increasing intrinsic value of Bitcoin, compounded by strong macroeconomic fundamentals, continues to enable its long-term growth.

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This article is based on insights from the "2025 Q4 Bitcoin Valuation Report" compiled by Tiger Research in partnership with Block Media. For in-depth analysis, visit the official Tiger Research website.