출처: Block Media
Weekly Prediction Market Volume Breaks $2 Billion Milestone as Polymarket Regains Leadership
The prediction market sector has achieved a historical breakthrough, with weekly trading volumes surpassing $2 billion for the first time, according to Dune Analytics. Polymarket, after being outpaced by Kalshi for the past eight weeks, has reclaimed its position as the market leader. This surge is attributed to the rapid growth in user activity and trading volumes across the sector, as reported by Decrypt on the 21st.
Kalshi, the first federally regulated prediction market platform in the United States, witnessed a remarkable rise in user engagement during August, coinciding with the kickoff of the NFL season, which positioned it ahead of Polymarket temporarily. However, Polymarket’s recent beta app launch in the U.S., spotlighting the upcoming November elections, has fueled its resurgence to the top of the leaderboard.
Dominance of Sports Betting, Political Markets See Rapid Growth
Sports betting continues to dominate the prediction market sector, with last week’s trading volumes reaching $414.7 million, making it the largest contributor by market share. Political markets, bolstered by heightened activity surrounding major elections, recorded $322.6 million in trading volumes during the same period. While political markets show impressive growth, they have yet to rival the scale and prevalence of sports-related wagers.
Events surrounding last November's re-election campaign of former President Donald Trump saw similar surges, with weekly trading volumes approaching $2 billion. At the time, market shares showed greater disparity: Polymarket led with $1.2 billion, followed by Kalshi with $749 million and Limitless at $5.2 million. Today, Polymarket remains in the lead at $1 billion, but with Kalshi closing in closely at $950 million, the competitive gap has dramatically narrowed. Limitless, meanwhile, boasts significant growth, with its trading volume quadrupling to $21.9 million. Notably, Myriad, a product of Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, has recorded $3.8 million in weekly trading volumes, carving out a modest but growing presence.
Regulatory Adjustments and Strategic Investments Fuel Expansion
The evolution of regulatory policies has been instrumental in fostering the expansion of prediction markets. Both Polymarket and Kalshi received "no-action" letters from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)—Polymarket in May and Kalshi in September—effectively granting them the ability to operate without direct federal oversight. Nonetheless, state-level regulators have raised challenges to their CFTC regulatory standing, creating a measure of uncertainty within the sector.
The injection of significant capital investments has also driven market growth. Kalshi recently concluded a $300 million Series D funding round, propelling its valuation to $5 billion. The funding round drew support from heavyweights such as venture capital giants Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) and Sequoia Capital, as well as cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, marking the latter’s debut in the U.S.-based prediction market space.
Polymarket solidified its position with a striking $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange. This funding boosted Polymarket’s valuation to $9 billion, further cementing its industry leadership. Analysts forecast extraordinary growth for the broader prediction market industry, with a consulting firm projecting a $95.5 billion market size by 2035, aligned with an estimated compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 46.8%.
Token Airdrops and Rising Concerns Over Farming Practices
The anticipation of potential token airdrops has been driving significant activity within the cryptocurrency community on platforms like Polymarket. Users are speculating and increasing their trading activities, hoping for larger allocations in potential airdrop rewards. However, these efforts have given rise to concerns about "farming" practices, a tactic where users artificially inflate trading volumes to boost their rewards from future airdrops.
Such practices were previously observed following U.S. elections but have since become more sophisticated, with users finding ways to circumvent platform-based anti-farming measures. Despite the growing attention to these issues, Polymarket and Kalshi have yet to publicly comment on the matter, according to Decrypt.
The prediction market landscape is evidently entering a transformative phase, fueled by record-breaking trading volumes, relaxed regulations, and significant funding. The competitive dynamic between platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi underscores both the maturity and the growth potential of this sector. As sports and political betting dominate the conversation, the promise of innovation, coupled with the challenges of regulatory and operational integrity, sets a high-stakes stage for the future of prediction markets. With predictions valuing the industry at nearly $100 billion in the coming decade, all eyes are on the platforms and their ability to navigate the rapidly evolving landscape.
