Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Add Selling Pressure: Challenges for a Recovery Until 2025

Bitcoin (BTC) could face persistent obstacles in achieving a sustained price recovery through 2025 as selling activity from long-term holders continues to escalate. According to recent on-chain data and expert analyses, the digital asset's price struggles are primarily driven by "OG whales," veteran investors who are liquidating their holdings at unprecedented levels.

Despite recently climbing above $110,000 in October, Bitcoin remains under considerable pressure as these seasoned investors take profits, creating strong resistance for upward movement.

Significant Selling Activity from Long-Term Holders

On-chain researcher James Check has outlined how long-term holders exert selling pressure on the market, explaining, “This slowdown in the market is fueled by ongoing whale sell-offs. Unlike manipulation or activities around paper Bitcoin, this selling is tied to long-term investors cashing out for profit.”

Such activity has reached notable peaks recently. According to Check’s analytics platform, Check On-Chain, these long-term holders sold over 240,000 BTC within the last month. This marks the most substantial profit-taking event since January 2023. Check explained that this heightened selling activity has created a critical layer of resistance in Bitcoin’s market, one unlikely to dissipate quickly.

Rising Metrics Indicate Dormant Coin Activation

Supporting this trend, Average Spent Output Lifespan (ASOL)—an on-chain metric that measures the average age of coins being traded—has risen significantly in 2023. Starting the year at 26 days, ASOL currently hovers around 100 days, signaling increased activation of dormant coins held for extended periods.

Another indicator, the "Revived Supply" metric, which tracks daily volumes of reactivated coins entering circulation, has surged to $2.9 billion per day—the second-highest level on record. Notably, 47% of these reactivated coins last moved between six months and one year ago, suggesting that investors who accumulated their BTC holdings during 2024–2025 are now exiting positions.

Generational Supply Shift or Profit-Taking?

James Check’s findings align with observations from fellow analyst William Clemente III, co-founder of Reflexivity Research. Clemente framed the Bitcoin downtrend not as market manipulation but as a "generational supply shift." He noted, “This isn’t about external forces artificially suppressing Bitcoin prices. Long-term holders are transferring supply to institutional entities such as family offices and hedge funds—a process ongoing for the past year.”

Institutional investors appear to be absorbing Bitcoin supplies shed by OG whales. Yet, this slow, structural redistribution acts as a drag on immediate price recovery due to the consistent sell-off pressure these veteran holders exert. As a Coinex analyst explained, “Rather than signaling weak overall market sentiment, Bitcoin’s stagnation reflects the effects of prolific sales activity by long-term holders. This inventory reshuffling naturally establishes resistance points before institutional investments stabilize the market.”

Bitcoin’s Range-Bound Struggle Amid Leverage Dynamics

Amid these developments, Bitcoin saw a modest increase of 3.7% earlier this week, briefly reaching $111,292 fueled by market optimism surrounding recent remarks by former President Trump. This rebound from the monthly low of $103,602 offered hope to some traders, although Bitcoin failed to sustain its upward momentum over the weekend and settled around $109,000.

Market data from CryptoQuant highlights a notable shift in leverage behavior as speculative positions unwound after mid-October’s price dip. Binance’s Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) initially declined in October but later rebounded marginally, rising from 0.148 to 0.166 by month-end—an indication that investor confidence may be cautiously re-emerging.

An ArabChain analyst remarked, “While the leverage uptick suggests improving sentiment among traders, the broader market remains constrained by external pressures, particularly the cumulative impact of whale sell-offs.”

The Road Ahead: Persistent Resistance at $104,000

As Bitcoin stabilizes around the $104,000 price range, market experts foresee continued challenges in breaking free from this tight trading band. Derivatives data indicates a gradual recovery in liquidity levels and sentiment within the market. However, analysts caution that this slow improvement is unlikely to translate into significant long-term gains until OG whales exhaust their selling phase.

“There’s potential for short-term rebounds,” analysts acknowledge, “but deeper, structural adjustments must occur for Bitcoin to achieve decisive upward momentum. Until then, the market will remain locked in this consolidation phase.”

Bitcoin’s near-term outlook hinges largely on the balance between continued sell-offs by veteran holders and sustained buying activity from institutional entities. While market optimism exists, the timeline for recovery remains uncertain as resistance pressures hold sway through 2025.