출처: Block Media
Bitcoin Faces Stability Challenges Ahead of Potential U.S. Government Shutdown
Bitcoin (BTC) held its ground despite growing fears of a potential U.S. government shutdown that could disrupt market stability. Concerns are mounting over delayed economic data releases and regulatory hold-ups, which analysts warn could exacerbate market volatility and dampen investor sentiment.
As of 8:30 a.m. on October 1 (local time, South Korea), Bitcoin was trading at 162.72 million KRW on Upbit, reflecting a marginal 0.18% decline from the previous day. On Binance, BTC slipped 0.35% to $11,389.3. Other major cryptocurrencies mirrored Bitcoin's downtrend; the CoinDesk20 index, which tracks the largest 20 cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin, dropped 1.21%. Ethereum (ETH) fell 1.96% to $4,137, while XRP (XRP) recorded a 1.62% dip to $2.84.
Escalating Liquidations Highlight Market Activity
Data from Coinglass revealed that Bitcoin saw $56.89 million worth of liquidated positions over the preceding 24 hours, with 64.6% of these being short (sell) positions. Across the broader crypto landscape, total liquidations surged to $437.80 million, indicating a heightened level of market activity and volatility.
The Looming U.S. Government Shutdown: Potential Market Fallout
Should a U.S. federal government shutdown come to pass, it would be the first in seven years. Former President Donald Trump has been pressing Congress to pass budget legislation before the midnight deadline, leveraging the situation to advocate for cuts to Democratic-backed programs and reduced federal workforce funding. A shutdown could disrupt essential administrative functions and delay federal workers' compensation.
Investors are particularly alarmed by the potential delay of critical economic data, such as the non-farm payroll report slated for release in early October. Moreover, financial regulators like the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) could face operational delays, potentially derailing cryptocurrency ETF reviews, regulatory framework discussions, and other critical oversight processes.
Experts Warn of Heightened Uncertainty and Ripple Effects
Leading market analysts have flagged the risks associated with the disruption of economic indicators. A report from digital asset exchange Bitfinex cautioned that the suspension of vital data, like employment figures and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), could inject significant volatility into financial markets. It emphasized, “The absence of key data hampers the Federal Reserve’s decision-making capabilities on monetary policy, potentially influencing interest rate markets across the board.”
The report further noted, “While outright financial instability may not be an immediate result, the erosion of trust and rising uncertainty among market participants present more significant longer-term challenges.”
Michael Bailey, Research Director at FBB Capital Partners, highlighted the possibility of market upheavals stemming from delayed economic data. He commented, “A missing employment report or CPI data ahead of the Fed’s next interest rate determination could destabilize market conditions. Given that equities are trading near record valuations, even minor disruptions may prompt a substantial correction.”
Diverging Predictions on Federal Reserve Actions
Opinions remain divided on how the Federal Reserve might respond to the current economic climate. David Syph, Chief Economist at Nomura, expressed a more optimistic view, forecasting a 0.25% interest rate cut during the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in October. He suggested that the Fed’s actions are unlikely to shift significantly, even if key data is postponed.
Investor Sentiment in the Crypto Market Holds Steady
The Alternative Fear & Greed Index, a key measure of investor sentiment in the cryptocurrency market, indicated a neutral score of 50 as of October 1, unchanged from the prior day. A reading closer to 0 signals increased selling pressure, while a score nearing 100 reflects a dominance of buying activity.
As digital asset markets brace for the potential fallout of economic and regulatory uncertainties, the industry remains in a delicate balancing act. Investors and market participants must prepare for potential headwinds and navigational challenges in the weeks ahead.
