Hedera (HBAR) Faces 30% Correction From Yearly Highs: Is a Rebound Imminent?

Hedera (HBAR), a prominent player in the blockchain space, has recently experienced a notable pullback, seeing its value decline by approximately 30% from its impressive yearly highs. Despite the current correction phase, a combination of technical analysis and on-chain metrics suggests the potential for a rebound, reigniting optimism among investors and analysts.

HBAR’s Market Performance: From Peaks to Pullback

Hedera’s price surged significantly earlier this year, climbing from $0.1265 in July to a peak of $0.3047. However, as of October 27, HBAR is trading at $0.21, reflecting a decline but remaining well above its starting levels in 2023.

Daily trading volume stands at $111.87 million (equivalent to around 157.7 billion Korean won), and futures open interest is valued at $357 million (approximately 503.4 billion Korean won). These metrics indicate consistent engagement from traders and investors alike, even amidst the ongoing correction phase.

Key Technical Indicators Point to Potential Upside

Elliott Wave Analysis Suggests Resumption of an Uptrend

HBAR’s recent price action aligns closely with the principles of Elliott Wave theory, which asserts that markets move in repetitive waves of rallies and retracements. Analysts observe that HBAR has likely completed its first upward movement (Wave 1) and is now in the midst of a second-wave corrective phase. Notably, this correction has retraced around 50%–61.8% of previous gains—a healthy consolidation under this framework.

Should the anticipated Wave 3 materialize, HBAR could challenge its 2022 high of $0.40, representing an impressive 85% upside from current price levels. This third wave is often the most powerful in the Elliott sequence, adding to growing optimism among technical traders.

Bullish Flag Formation Strengthens Rebound Expectations

A "Bullish Flag" pattern has emerged in HBAR’s recent price activity, characterized by a rapid upward movement followed by a downward-sloping channel. Typically, this formation signals an impending bullish breakout, underscoring the potential for upward momentum in the near term.

Moreover, HBAR remains above its 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a key technical indicator that suggests underlying buying pressure remains intact. This consistent EMA support forms a foundational level that could act as a launchpad for future gains.

On-Chain Fundamentals Signal Positive Momentum

USDC Supply Growth Enhances Liquidity

On-chain metrics bolster the case for a rebound, with increasing stablecoin liquidity acting as a major catalyst. According to data from DeFiLlama, the supply of Circle’s USDC on the Hedera network has surged by $45 million over the past seven days, now totaling $115 million.

The rise in stablecoin supply translates to improved liquidity on the Hedera network, enhancing its utility for decentralized finance (DeFi) applications and potentially attracting more participants to the ecosystem. This growth reflects increasing investor confidence in the network’s scalability and adoption potential.

Anticipation Surrounds SEC ETF Decisions

Another critical factor influencing market sentiment is the pending decision from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) concerning the approval of cryptocurrency-focused Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). Should HBAR secure ETF approval, both institutional and retail investors are likely to increase their exposure, driving amplified demand and potentially leading to a price surge.

ETF approvals have historically served as significant bullish catalysts for digital assets by providing a regulated and accessible investment vehicle for a broader audience.

Current Valuation Against Global Benchmarks

As of October 28 at 11:30 a.m. Korea Standard Time, HBAR is trading at $0.2113 on Binance. On South Korean exchange Upbit, it is priced at 305 Korean won. These figures underline the token’s resilience despite the broader crypto market’s volatility.

Conclusion: A Path Toward Recovery?

While Hedera (HBAR) has experienced a notable correction from its earlier highs in 2023, the current technical setup and on-chain developments hint at a potential upward trajectory. The combination of Elliott Wave patterns, Bullish Flag formations, rising USDC supply, and the possibility of ETF approvals creates a favorable macro and microenvironment for HBAR.

Investors are closely monitoring these signals for confirmation of the predicted rebound, with eyes set on the critical $0.40 level as a key milestone in the asset’s ongoing recovery. Whether through technical breakthroughs or institutional adoption, HBAR may just be setting the stage for its next significant upward move.