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Wall Street Ends Mixed Amid Trade Tariff Fears and Speculation Over Fed Rate Cuts
The U.S. stock market closed on a mixed note Tuesday as investors reacted cautiously to escalating trade tensions and growing speculation around potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. Ongoing concerns over tariffs from the Trump administration dominated discussions, fueling a risk-averse trading environment throughout the day.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 142.30 points, or 0.32%, to finish at 44,342.19. The S&P 500 dipped marginally by 0.57 points, or 0.01%, to settle at 6,296.79. Conversely, the Nasdaq Composite ended on a positive note, gaining 10.01 points, or 0.05%, to close at 20,895.66.
Trade Tensions Amplify Market Uncertainty
Investor anxiety deepened following reports that President Donald Trump is pushing for significant new tariffs on European Union (EU) imports. Sources indicate Trump is demanding tariffs of at least 15% to 20% on all EU trade items as part of ongoing negotiations. Maros Sefcovic, the EU's trade commissioner, reportedly described these negotiations as "challenging" in conversations with EU diplomats.
While a senior U.S. official hinted that a deal may be possible, Trump appears adamant about imposing reciprocal tariffs of over 10%. The markets were further rattled by his previous announcement of a 30% tariff on EU imports starting August 1. Although the latest potential tariff figure of 15% is less stringent, it underscores continued uncertainty, raising fears of interruptions to global trade stability.
Federal Reserve Rate Cut Speculation Gains Momentum
Market speculation about interest rate cuts intensified after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller renewed his call for a 25 basis-point (bp) rate reduction at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Speaking at various events and interviews, Waller emphasized that there is "no convincing reason" to delay reducing rates, adding weight to his stance as one of the few outspoken advocates within the Fed.
Currently, Waller and Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman are the primary figures backing a July rate cut, making their position a minority opinion. However, Waller’s remarks, coupled with his reputation as a potential Fed Chair candidate, have had a palpable influence on market sentiment.
The CME FedWatch Tool highlighted that the odds of a September rate cut rose to 57.9% by market close—up from 50.8% the previous day. Still, these evolving expectations did little to buoy equity markets.
Ken Mahoney, CEO of Mahoney Asset Management, remarked, “Although there’s chatter about imminent Fed rate cuts, historical data shows bull markets often thrive without them. The first rate cut tends to signal caution, suggesting possible economic softening ahead.”
Sector Highlights and Stock Movements
Utilities emerged as the best-performing sector of the day, gaining over 1%, while the energy sector lagged, dropping nearly 1%. Consumer discretionary stocks also delivered strong gains, rallying close to 1%.
Among notable movers, Netflix shed more than 5% despite surpassing estimates in its second-quarter earnings report. The streaming giant exceeded both revenue and earnings forecasts and raised its annual revenue guidance. However, heightened concerns over increased content amortization costs weighed on investor sentiment, triggering the sell-off.
American Express, after reporting solid second-quarter results, saw its shares drop over 2%. The credit card company revealed it had increased credit loss provisions to $1.4 billion from $1.3 billion during the same period a year prior.
In contrast, Charles Schwab surged 2.9% to hit an all-time intraday high, driven by strong second-quarter trading revenue. Meanwhile, Invesco soared 15% after announcing plans to convert its popular QQQ ETF into an open-ended fund structure, a move that sparked optimism among investors.
As of now, 83% of S&P 500 companies reporting second-quarter results have outperformed earnings expectations, while 12% have exceeded revenue forecasts—a sign of resilience amidst broader market uncertainties.
Economic Data Update Highlights
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index provided a glimmer of optimism in economic data, climbing to a preliminary reading of 61.8 for July—the highest in five months. This marks an improvement over June’s final figure of 60.7.
Meanwhile, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often called Wall Street's “fear gauge,” declined slightly, slipping 0.11 points, or 0.67%, to end at 16.41, reflecting a subdued level of market volatility.
Investors remain focused on developments in the U.S.-EU trade negotiations, as well as Federal Reserve policy shifts, both of which are expected to shape the near-term market trajectory.
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