BLS to Proceed with September CPI Release Despite U.S. Government Shutdown

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has confirmed it will release the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) on October 15 as originally scheduled, despite the ongoing federal government shutdown. This decision, reported by The New York Times on October 9, marks a significant deviation from the Department of Labor’s contingency plans, which initially anticipated halting all BLS statistical activities during a funding lapse.

Special Measures to Ensure CPI Data Release

Initially, the shutdown contingency plan mandated a complete cessation of BLS operations, leaving only the acting director to oversee essential security and maintenance. However, recognizing the widespread impact of a delayed CPI release, the bureau has recalled a limited number of staff members to ensure the data reaches the public on time.

This action is deemed critical for preventing disruptions tied to the CPI’s various applications. Chief among these is its use in determining cost-of-living adjustments for Social Security beneficiaries, affecting millions of Americans. While the BLS had already completed the collection of September’s consumer price data, additional personnel are required to finalize the processing and publication, necessitating the recall of economists and IT staff.

CPI’s Role in Monetary Policy Decisions

The timely release of the CPI takes on added significance ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) meeting later in October. The CPI serves as a foundational economic indicator for shaping monetary policy, and the shutdown’s ripple effects have already led to the delay of critical reports, such as the September jobs report. Policymakers rely heavily on CPI data to gauge inflationary trends, influencing interest rate decisions, financial stability measures, and broader economic planning.

Leadership Challenges Amid Government Shutdown

Heightened challenges in leadership at the BLS compound the difficulty of balancing operations during the funding lapse. Currently, the bureau is under the interim leadership of Deputy Director William Wiatrowski after former director Erica Groshen was dismissed in August. Complicating matters, President Trump’s initial nomination of conservative economist E.J. Antoni to head the agency sparked bipartisan criticism, leading the administration to withdraw his candidacy.

Broad Support for Releasing the CPI

Experts across industries have underscored the necessity of ensuring the CPI’s release despite the surrounding political uncertainty. As one industry analyst explained, “The CPI is fundamental, regardless of external political dynamics. It guides Social Security adjustments, frames key interest rate decisions, and supports the stability of financial markets. Moving forward with its release is not only prudent but absolutely essential.”

This move by the BLS highlights the importance of sustained transparency and reliability in economic data reporting, especially during turbulent periods like a government shutdown. By prioritizing the CPI release, the bureau seeks to mitigate uncertainty and support informed decision-making for both policymakers and the public.