MicroStrategy Stock Trades at Record-Low Premium to Bitcoin Holdings

Shares of MicroStrategy (MSTR) are currently valued at 1.21 times the company's Bitcoin (BTC) holdings, marking the lowest market-to-net-asset-value (mNAV) ratio since early 2024. This data, highlighted in an October 9 report by Coin Republic, underscores a significant shift in the way the market values MicroStrategy relative to its substantial Bitcoin assets.

MicroStrategy's market capitalization is approximately $94 billion, modestly exceeding the value of its Bitcoin holdings, which consist of roughly 639,000 BTC worth approximately $78 billion at current market prices. The 21% premium investors are paying over the net value of the company’s Bitcoin holdings represents a steep drop from the 240% premium recorded in November 2024. This sharp decline indicates waning investor enthusiasm or a reassessment of the stock's intrinsic value relative to its Bitcoin exposure.

Bitcoin's Superior Performance Against MSTR Stock in 2025

The performance gap between Bitcoin and MicroStrategy stock has widened in 2025, highlighting a stark contrast in their returns. Bitcoin’s price surged by about 31% year-to-date, bringing its value to around $121,700 per coin. In comparison, MSTR shares posted only a 13.3% gain during the same period. This divergence shows that direct Bitcoin investments have outpaced the returns from MicroStrategy stock, raising questions about the stock's ability to reflect the inherent value of its underlying Bitcoin assets.

Despite Bitcoin’s impressive rally and MicroStrategy’s unrealized profit—given its average Bitcoin purchase price of $73,913—the company’s stock has not mirrored the cryptocurrency's growth. This discrepancy underscores a disconnect between the market’s perception of MSTR stock and the performance of Bitcoin. As MicroStrategy continues to position itself as a vehicle for Bitcoin exposure, this disparity could undermine its attractiveness to certain investors.

Equity Dilution and Insider Selling Pressure Investor Sentiment

MicroStrategy's relentless expansion of its Bitcoin reserves remains a cornerstone of its strategy, but it hasn’t come without drawbacks. The company raised $68 million recently through the issuance of preferred equity to finance the purchase of an additional 525 BTC at an average price of $114,562 per coin. However, this fundraising effort was primarily fueled by issuing more shares, with approximately 90% of the total capital raised coming from equity dilution. The increased share count has consequently pressured the stock’s mNAV ratio, leaving existing shareholders with a reduced share of the firm’s total assets.

Furthermore, insider selling has added to the negative investor sentiment. Earlier this year, board member Carl Rickertsen liquidated his entire stake, valued at approximately $10 million. Founder Michael Saylor, a vocal Bitcoin proponent, also sold millions of dollars’ worth of shares during 2024. The pattern of insider sales, combined with the continuous issuance of new shares, has been a major contributing factor to the stock's recent underperformance.

Is MicroStrategy Acting as a De Facto Bitcoin ETF?

The close correlation between MSTR stock and Bitcoin prices has led some analysts to consider MicroStrategy as a de facto Bitcoin spot ETF. Trading at just 1.21 times its net asset value, the stock offers both institutional and retail investors indirect exposure to Bitcoin while bypassing the regulatory frameworks and challenges associated with a formal Bitcoin ETF. This unique positioning has allowed MicroStrategy to attract investors seeking exposure to cryptocurrency markets, though it has not been without complications.

While the company has benefited significantly from Bitcoin’s price appreciation, persistent equity dilution and insider sales continue to act as headwinds. Both factors have dampened investor confidence, making it challenging for the stock to fully capitalize on Bitcoin’s rising trajectory. For MicroStrategy to regain investor trust and drive its share value closer to Bitcoin’s performance, it will need to address these structural issues and refine its financial strategy.

Charting the Road Ahead

MicroStrategy has firmly established itself as a corporate trailblazer in Bitcoin accumulation, with a stock price that appears to move in near lockstep with the digital currency’s value. However, the responsibility now lies with the company to manage its equity structure prudently and alleviate shareholder concerns about dilution and insider transactions. Success on these fronts could allow MicroStrategy to more effectively leverage Bitcoin’s continuing bullish trends and establish itself as a sustainable investment vehicle for cryptocurrency exposure. However, for now, the stock remains a cautionary case study of the complexities tied to merging traditional equity markets with the volatile nature of digital assets.