Ethereum (ETH): Bullish Framework Persists Amid Temporary Cooling Trends

Ethereum (ETH) remains firmly entrenched in a long-term bullish structure despite experiencing cooling activity after reaching recent highs. The cryptocurrency continues to trade above fair value metrics, signaling sustained market confidence, even as short-term fluctuations emerge in activity.

ETH is currently priced at $3,976, marking a 2.3% increase over the past 24 hours. During the past week, Ethereum has fluctuated between $3,709 and $4,080—a weekly gain of 4%, though still 5% below its value from a month ago. At its current level, ETH sits approximately 19% beneath its historic peak of $4,956, which it achieved on August 24.

Trading volume for Ethereum in the past 24 hours has cooled to $33.68 billion—a 15.4% dip—while futures trading activity has dropped by 13.27%, reaching $84 billion. Notably, open interest has climbed by 5.32% to $46.2 billion. This juxtaposition of lower activity and higher investment positioning demonstrates that traders have maintained confidence despite softer momentum in short-term action.

Long-Term Bullish Indicators Remain Above Fair Value

Ethereum continues to trade significantly above its fair value as defined by metrics such as realized price, despite recent consolidation from peak levels. Fair value acts as an important benchmark for assessing market health, representing the average price at which all circulating ETH has been transacted on-chain. Currently, ETH's realized price sits at approximately $2,300—a level historically recognized as robust support during bearish market phases.

CryptoQuant analyst TeddyVision, in an October 23 report, indicated that this sustained position above realized price is a critical sign of structural strength: "Ethereum remains trading above its fair value, even as it cools from recent highs. This signals the foundation of market health among holders." The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio—currently at 1.67—shows that ETH holders, on average, have unrealized gains of approximately 67%. Analysts view this as evidence that the market is in a healthy consolidation phase rather than overextended speculation.

Ethereum appears to encounter resistance near realized price bands at upper thresholds (around $5,300), suggesting natural consolidation dynamics rather than impending trend reversals. TeddyVision emphasized that long-term holders are capitalizing on profits, but warned that further upward momentum will rely on substantial liquidity inflows rather than leverage-led speculative purchases.

Exchange Net Inflows Signal Caution

CryptoQuant’s CryptoOnChain highlighted a key shift in Ethereum’s exchange net flow trends, indicating signs of cautious activity. Over the past seven days, Ethereum’s net inflows across exchanges have transitioned from -57,000 ETH to +7,000 ETH—a reversal dominated by Binance’s inflows, which flipped from -31,000 ETH to +3,000 ETH within the same timeframe.

This increase in net inflows hints at mounting selling sentiment among ETH holders, as a portion of the community positions assets for potential offloading. While this trend is not an immediate alarm, its combination with softening spot trading volumes poses questions about possible short-term selling pressure.

Technical Analysis Highlights Neutral Momentum with Robust Foundations

Ethereum’s technical indicators currently reflect a neutral stance, with balanced momentum visible across leading analysis tools. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 46.2, underscoring no clear directional momentum in the short term. Additional oscillators, including Stochastic, CCI, and ADX, suggest similarly neutral positions.

Short-term moving averages, such as the 10-day EMA and SMA, reveal bullish signals around the $3,900 price point, helping ETH maintain some upward momentum in the near term. However, mid-term averages such as the 20-day and 50-day indicators still demonstrate downward movement, signaling lingering corrective pressure from earlier peaks. Conversely, long-term signals like the 200-day EMA reflect broader bullish metrics, currently positioned at $3,577—well below the existing price point of $3,976.

Looking forward, ETH’s price trajectory offers key levels to monitor. Sustaining above $3,900 and breaking through resistance at $4,100 could initiate further price moves into the $4,500–$4,800 range. Conversely, increased selling pressure that breaches the $3,700 support level may prompt a decline toward $3,400 or even $3,000.

Conclusion: Long-Term Strength Amid Short-Term Consolidation

Ethereum’s current market dynamics reflect stability during its cooling phase, underscoring resilience in maintaining a bullish framework in the long run. Traders and analysts alike remain bullish on ETH’s foundational market structure, acknowledging the slowdown as natural consolidation rather than a sign of vulnerability. Despite softening short-term activity and cautious inflows, Ethereum’s fair value positioning and healthy metrics affirm its fortitude as a leading cryptocurrency asset. As the market evolves, the next few weeks will likely spotlight whether ETH transitions toward renewed highs or tackles important support thresholds during temporary corrections.