Crypto Market Opens Higher as Bitcoin Tops $115,034: Key Trends and Insights

Bitcoin Leads Gains in Slightly Positive Market Momentum

On October 12, the New York digital asset market witnessed a mildly positive opening, with Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies showing notable upward movement. According to CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin (BTC) rose 1.05%, trading at $115,034, with a market capitalization of $2.291 trillion (approximately KRW 3,194 trillion). Its 24-hour trading volume stood at a remarkable $48.8 billion (around KRW 68 trillion), reinforcing its dominance in the market.

Other top-performing cryptocurrencies also experienced gains. Ethereum (ETH) rose by 2.24% to $4,517, while XRP was up 1.33%, trading at $3.03 and testing short-term resistance levels. Solana (SOL) led the altcoin surge, climbing 5.37% to $239.67, while the meme coin Dogecoin (DOGE) followed with a 5.40% increase to $0.2623.

Options Expiry Adds Volatility to BTC and ETH

Today’s crypto market volatility is partly driven by the expiry of Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts. Specifically, 28,000 Bitcoin options, valued at approximately $3.3 billion (equivalent to KRW 4.6 trillion), and 185,000 Ethereum options, worth $850 million (around KRW 1.19 trillion), are set to expire. Combined, this results in $4.3 billion (about KRW 5.99 trillion) worth of contracts expiring.

Bitcoin’s “max pain price” — the price level at which the most options contracts are rendered valueless — was identified at $113,000, slightly below the current trading price. This suggests potential short-term corrective pressures, especially as the put-call ratio for Bitcoin sits at 1.31, indicating a majority of bearish bets.

For Ethereum, the max pain price was around $4,400, forecasting a potential rebound post-expiry. Analysts are closely watching the $4,700 resistance level, viewed as a critical short-term price barrier. Notably, Ethereum’s put-call ratio stands at 0.85, with a rising trend in call options indicating growing investor optimism for upward movement.

Bitcoin Holders Bolster Market Confidence

On-chain data reflects increasing confidence among Bitcoin investors. The holding rate of Bitcoin surged to an annual high of 80.49%, underscoring a broader preference for holding positions rather than liquidating them, even during periods of price stagnation such as August. This trend aligns with sentiment in the derivatives market, where the Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) climbed to 0.26—its highest level in 2023.

Market analysts believe that Bitcoin’s ability to sustain its price above the $114,000 support level is crucial for further upward momentum. If BTC maintains this support, it could climb toward $119,367, with extended targets around $122,190.

Altcoin Market Movements

The overall altcoin market mirrored Bitcoin’s steady growth, though with mixed performance among specific tokens:

• Binance Coin (BNB) recorded a 1.10% rise, trading at $908.
• Cardano (ADA) gained 1.14%, reaching $0.8892.
• HyperLiquid (HYPE) surged 3.36% to $56.14, reflecting heightened trading activity.
• Avalanche (AVAX), however, slipped by 1.60%, landing at $28.43, bucking the overall upward trend.

These mixed movements indicate varied investor sentiment across different sectors of the cryptocurrency market.

Key Levels to Monitor as Fed's Rate Cuts Loom

Macroeconomic factors continue to exert influence over the crypto market. Signs of a slowing U.S. labor market, coupled with cooling inflation pressures, have cemented expectations of a 25-basis-point rate cut during the Federal Reserve’s upcoming September meeting. While short-term volatility remains an inevitable consequence of options expiries, the broader market outlook hinges on two critical technical levels: Bitcoin’s ability to sustain support at $114,000 and Ethereum’s effort to breach the $4,700 resistance.

These markers will likely set the tone for short-term market momentum. A successful defense of these levels could serve to reinforce bullish sentiment, paving the way for stronger technical setups in the coming weeks.

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