Bitcoin (BTC): Could September’s Early Low Signal a Bottom? Analysts Weigh In

Bitcoin (BTC) might have reached its monthly low earlier this September, hovering near $107,000, as per an analysis spotlighted by CoinDesk on September 12. Historical patterns suggest that the price fluctuations during the initial days of the month may signal a sustained bottom for the remainder of September. Analysts are leveraging these trends to anticipate Bitcoin’s trajectory in the weeks to come.

Historical Trends Point to Early-Month Lows

Analysis of Bitcoin’s historical performance underscores a consistent pattern: over the past year, the cryptocurrency has often set its monthly lows within the first 10 days of the month. This trend, noted since July 2024, highlights early-September price movements as particularly significant for Bitcoin valuations.

While there were deviations during February, June, and August 2025, even these months witnessed price corrections predominantly during the early days before aligning with broader market trends. This recurring pattern continues to capture the attention of traders and analysts alike.

What Drives This Early-Month Trend?

Market observers point to several factors contributing to Bitcoin’s early-month behavior. Notably, the timing of institutional portfolio rebalancing appears to play a pivotal role. Many institutional investors recalibrate their holdings at the beginning of a new month or quarter, creating ripples across asset markets, including cryptocurrency.

Additionally, significant macroeconomic events—such as interest rate announcements, economic data releases, or geopolitical developments—often coincide with this period. These concentrated activities tend to amplify volatility, making the early month a critical window for price fluctuations.

Futures and Options Expiry Impact

Another prominent driver of early-month price volatility is the expiration of Bitcoin futures and options contracts. Oliver Knight, Deputy Editor for Data and Tokens at CoinDesk, highlights that the conclusion of these contracts—most frequently occurring at the junction between the end of one month and the start of the next—can temporarily disrupt the market.

“This expiration often triggers short-term fluctuations,” Knight explained. “During this period, trader activity may momentarily slow as participants roll over existing positions or establish new ones.”

The transitional phase following contract expirations frequently disrupts momentum-driven trading strategies. However, as market participants settle their positions, the market tends to regain stability, paving the way for new trends to develop.

Bitcoin’s Historical Fourth-Quarter Strength

Although historical data is no guarantee of future results, the cryptocurrency community tends to look to Bitcoin’s consistent fourth-quarter rally with optimism. On average, Bitcoin has delivered an 85% return during Q4 in previous years, marking it as one of the strongest periods for the asset.

Of particular significance is October, a standout month in Bitcoin’s historical performance. Since 2013, Bitcoin has posted gains in October every year except twice, confirming growing expectations for a positive market uptick as the month unfolds.

This historical precedent shapes market sentiment as traders and investors assess Bitcoin’s price behavior heading into the close of 2023—a year already marked by substantial volatility and macroeconomic shifts.

What Lies Ahead for Bitcoin in 2023?

As traditional market calendars and crypto-specific events continue to influence Bitcoin’s price, all eyes remain on the ongoing fourth quarter. The combination of institutional rebalancing, futures expiry, and long-term performance trends reinforces the strategic significance of the September bottom.

For those keen to stay updated on market developments and Bitcoin price analysis, keep connected with trusted resources like Block Media’s Telegram Channel.

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Suggested Reading: Bitcoin Faces $4.3 Billion in Options Expiry—Is the Price Poised for a Shift?