Analysts Split as Bitcoin Faces Third May Midterm Slump

• Bitcoin analysts debate chances of steep May drop, citing previous midterm-election patterns in 2018 and 2022.
• Experts highlight new institutional flows, spot ETFs, and regulatory changes as key factors shaping May 2026 market behavior.

On May 18, 2026, Cointelegraph Magazine reported that markets are bracing for possible May volatility as Bitcoin analysts remain divided over a sharp “sell in May” downturn in 2026. The debate centers on Bitcoin’s historic price declines during previous midterm-election bear markets, notably in May 2018 and May 2022, when Bitcoin dropped from nearly $10,000 to $7,000 and from $40,000 to $28,500, respectively.

Merlijn Enkelaar, a crypto analyst, labeled this bearish pattern as “perfect,” predicting a potential collapse to $33,000 even with promising macro trends, new legislation like the CLARITY Act, and a supportive Trump administration. According to Enkelaar, ongoing discussions focus on whether these positive external factors can counteract historical risks.

Joao Wedson warned of a heightened chance of capitulation if Bitcoin stays under $78,000, noting bears gaining strength as the price stood at $76,900, down 5.6% in one week.

In contrast, CoinEx chief analyst Jeff Ko argued that past May crashes resulted from specific macroeconomic shocks, including the Mt. Gox fallout, China’s policy moves, Federal Reserve tightening, and the Terra/FTX crisis. Ko believes cyclical calendar effects are less influential now, given fundamental changes like spot ETFs, higher corporate adoption, and regulatory progress, resulting in a more institutionalized buyer base. While Ko sees a possible drop to the mid-$60,000 or high-$50,000 range if macro or ETF shocks occur, he suggests that hitting $33,000 would demand a systemic crisis.

Michaël van de Poppe, MN Fund founder, offered an upbeat outlook, saying Bitcoin is consolidating after a 40% rally. He marked $76,000 as a support level, cautioning that breaking below could prompt more downside.

Overall, most analysts point to a fundamentally changed market structure in 2026, with institutional flows, spot ETFs, and regulatory advancement likely limiting the severity of any May declines. The $76,000 support level remains central for short-term trading moves.

As of May 18, 2026, 15:09 UTC, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $76,142.87, with a 2.47% drop in 24-hour trading volume, according to CoinMarketCap.