U.S. Firm “Strategy” Positions for S&P 500 Inclusion Amid Bitcoin Market Challenges

Anticipating S&P 500 Inclusion Despite Bitcoin Slowdown

Digital asset research firm 10X Research projects a strong possibility—up to 70%—that U.S.-based Bitcoin-centric company “Strategy” could join the prestigious S&P 500 index by year-end. This forecast comes despite recent challenges such as slowed Bitcoin acquisitions and stock price adjustments. Strategy’s potential inclusion hinges on delivering robust third-quarter earnings, which, according to the report, could accelerate discussions.

The analysis anticipates Strategy will report $3.8 billion in Bitcoin valuation gains during its Q3 earnings disclosure set for October 30. Meeting S&P 500 inclusion criteria—profitability, market capitalization, and liquidity—would position the firm favorably for inclusion during the index’s December 19 rebalancing. Analysts estimate the likelihood of this event at 60–70%.

“Moments of capitulation often mark the beginning of something transformative,” the report from 10X Research states, underscoring the importance of Strategy’s October 30 earnings report as a potential catalyst that could shift market sentiment ahead of the index's December 5 review meeting. Against the subdued investor sentiment prevailing in digital asset markets, this earnings release could signal a critical turning point for Strategy and similar companies.

Navigating Bitcoin Acquisition Hurdles and Valuation Pressures

Despite the optimism, Strategy faces challenges common to Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) firms. These companies, heavily impacted by fluctuations in Bitcoin valuations, have seen declining market net asset value (mNAV)—a key metric comparing digital asset holdings to enterprise valuation. When mNAV drops below 1.0, companies lose the ability to issue shares for fundraising aimed at acquiring more cryptocurrency, placing significant constraints on capital.

Several DAT firms, including Strategy, Bitmine, Metaplanet (MTPLF), Sharplink Gaming (SBET), Upexi (UPXI), and DeFi Development (DFDV), have experienced their mNAV slipping beneath 1.0. As a result, fundraising efforts tied to issuing equity for digital asset purchases have dwindled. Strategy’s Bitcoin acquisitions illustrate this trend—while the company secured 3,526 BTC in September, October’s purchases dropped to just 778 BTC, marking an alarming 78% decrease and its lowest monthly acquisition rate in years.

Market Liquidity Trends: A Precursor to Recovery?

While the slowdown in acquisitions and market corrections might seem like warning signs, 10X Research suggests otherwise. According to the firm’s analysis, the Bitcoin market is entering a phase of structural adjustment that may precede substantial growth. With $1.8 billion in net asset premiums unwound and market volatility re-emerging, key indicators suggest the next upward rally could soon unfold.

“This is not the time to brace for decline; instead, it’s the moment to prepare for the next movement,” the report advocates. Echoing this sentiment, 10X notes that liquidity frequently returns to the market at pivotal cycle points, and the current conditions may mark such a moment. For investors and DAT firms like Strategy, the outlook remains cautiously optimistic despite immediate pressures.

Credit Rating Milestone: Junk Status with Positive Industry Implications

Adding to Strategy’s complexities, S&P Global recently assigned the company a speculative-grade “B-” credit rating, commonly referred to as junk bond status. While this rating reflects potential credit risk and falls below investment-grade levels, it represents a milestone for the digital asset industry. The evaluation is S&P’s first formal rating of a digital asset-driven firm, setting the stage for increased institutional recognition of cryptocurrency-oriented companies.

S&P Global further issued a “positive outlook” on Strategy’s stock performance, highlighting how such assessments could pave the way for traditional financial institutions to create standardized benchmarks for evaluating firms in the digital asset sector. Strategy’s speculative-grade rating may ultimately contribute to legitimizing companies operating within the volatile cryptocurrency landscape, encouraging greater integration between traditional and digital finance.

A Critical Moment for Strategy and the Industry

As Strategy approaches pivotal milestones—the Q3 earnings report, potential S&P 500 inclusion, and evolving industry benchmarks—the company’s trajectory holds significant implications for how digital asset-driven businesses are perceived within the larger financial ecosystem. Strategy’s ability to navigate challenges such as declining mNAV, slowed Bitcoin acquisitions, and valuation pressures could determine not only its immediate future but also set precedents for the broader industry.

Though still under scrutiny due to its high-risk credit rating and the volatility of the Bitcoin market, Strategy’s resilience and strategic moves could redefine the interplay between digital assets and traditional finance. With industry observers keenly waiting on the firm’s upcoming announcements, Strategy remains at the forefront of shaping the next chapter of cryptocurrency adoption in mainstream financial markets.