Trump-Kim Meeting Predicted at Just 10% Following South Korea Visit

The prospect of a meeting between former U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has plunged significantly, with odds now sitting at just 10%. This sharp decline comes from data provided by Polymarket, a blockchain-driven platform for predicting the outcomes of real-world events.

Betting Odds Drop Drastically Amid South Korea Trip

On October 29, expectations for a Trump-Kim meeting had previously reached a high of nearly 40%. However, the odds nosedived to 10% shortly after Trump embarked on his visit to South Korea to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit held in Gyeongju.

The sudden shift in betting sentiment underscores the minimal likelihood of diplomatic progress between Trump and Kim, despite prior public overtures made by Trump.

Key Developments During Trump's South Korea Visit

During the APEC summit, Trump met with South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, where the two leaders held bilateral discussions in Gyeongju. Yet, in the context of North Korea, Trump abstained from providing any additional comments on the potential of a meeting with Kim Jong-un.

The omission was notable, particularly as Trump had previously expressed interest in reinitiating dialogue with the North Korean leader on several occasions in public statements leading up to his trip.

Pyongyang’s Ongoing Silence

Adding further complexity to the situation, North Korea has maintained complete silence regarding Trump’s approach thus far. Despite his multiple declarations signaling a willingness to meet, Pyongyang has refrained from issuing any official comments or reciprocating gestures.

This lack of response from Kim Jong-un suggests a continued deadlock in relations between the United States and North Korea under Trump’s potential involvement.

Conclusion

While the idea of a meeting between Trump and Kim Jong-un once captured public attention and briefly gained traction among political analysts, betting data now paints a starkly different picture. With odds dropping to just 10%, optimism has waned, especially as Pyongyang remains unresponsive and Trump’s South Korea visit has yet to produce any meaningful developments on the matter.

As geopolitical dynamics evolve, this scenario emphasizes the unpredictability of diplomacy in the Korean Peninsula and the broader Asia-Pacific region.