출처: Block Media
Key Takeaways
The evolution of cryptocurrency innovations typically follows a cycle encompassing hype, infrastructure creation, and eventual adoption. While many concepts fail to move beyond the initial excitement, x402—a payment protocol developed by Coinbase—appears ready to break this mold. Designed to facilitate autonomous AI agent payments via blockchain technology without human intervention, x402 has garnered significant industry attention and is transitioning rapidly from hype to infrastructure development. Major firms such as Cloudflare, Google Cloud, and Anthropic are advancing the protocol toward widespread adoption, signaling its transformative potential in agentic commerce.
Challenges persist, particularly around consumer trust and psychological acceptance. Accenture surveys indicate hesitation in AI-controlled transactions, but Gartner projects that by 2030, $30 trillion in transactions will be AI agent-managed. This forecast highlights blockchain’s essential role in enabling agentic commerce and x402’s potential as a groundbreaking solution.
Understanding the Adoption Journey of Crypto Concepts
Phases in Technology Adoption
Cryptocurrency concepts often captivate the market briefly before fading into obscurity. Only a select few persist, navigating a three-phase journey to achieve lasting adoption:
1. Hype Phase
A concept initially captures attention through speculation, driving up related project or token prices. However, many ideas fail to hold interest, with prices typically collapsing after brief upward momentum.
2. Infrastructure Phase
Builders and developers begin creating practical products based on these concepts, a critical step that often spans months to years. Concepts unable to prove real-world viability are abandoned, while successful ones gradually establish use cases and build foundational infrastructure.
3. Adoption Phase
Only a handful of ideas reach the adoption phase, where product-market fit (PMF) is achieved, ushering a steady flow of users and new entrants. The success of protocols like AMM-based decentralized exchanges, staking mechanisms, and stablecoins exemplifies this milestone.
Insights from Past Crypto Trends
Futarchy
Initially popularized by Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, futarchy—a decentralized governance model—gained traction during Solana’s ICO push. Despite philosophical intrigue, its complexities in governance limit its potential for widespread adoption.
Decentralized Energy
The decentralized energy sector experienced a surge in 2022, attracting major venture capital investments from firms like a16zcrypto. Daylight’s $75 million funding reignited interest temporarily, but the sector remains stuck in a demanding infrastructure phase.
Robotics
The intersection of robotics and cryptocurrency gained traction during the crypto-AI hype wave. Projects such as Openmind, backed by Pantera Capital with $20 million funding, generated excitement. Yet, adoption remains a distant milestone as the concept continues infrastructure development.
Among these cases, x402 stands out for its timely progression through the adoption cycle, underscoring its strong potential for scalability and industry-wide impact.
Could x402 Achieve Success?
Overview
x402, developed by Coinbase, is a payment protocol enabling AI agents to autonomously conduct blockchain-based transactions using stablecoins. This groundbreaking approach bypasses traditional mechanisms like accounts and API keys, streamlining payments between AI agents and online services.
Key Features
Built on HTTP 402 protocol—a lesser-known status code indicating “Payment Required”—x402 introduces an innovative payment model:
- When attempting to access premium services or paid content, a server issues an HTTP 402 code containing payment-specific details such as cost, payment method, and wallet address.
- The AI agent generates a stablecoin payment transaction, signs it digitally, and submits it.
- The transaction is verified by a facilitator, processed on the blockchain, and delivered to the intended recipient.
- Upon successful payment, access is granted automatically.
This model facilitates seamless machine-to-machine transactions while empowering users to make micro-payments without complex procedures like account registration.
x402 Progression: From Hype to Infrastructure
Entering the Hype Phase
Initially launched in May 2025, x402 gained momentum following its inclusion in a16zcrypto’s influential report, State of Crypto 2025: The Year Crypto Went Mainstream. Coupled with Gartner’s projection of $30 trillion in AI-driven commerce by 2030, x402 has become a focal point for the cryptocurrency sector.
Crypto market speculation highlights this hype, with related token prices such as $VIRTUAL surging 40% within two days. While such spikes often signal fleeting interest, x402’s infrastructural developments set it apart from past crypto narratives that faltered after their hype faded.
Strengthening Infrastructure
Unlike many concepts, x402 demonstrates robust progress by aligning with real-world adoption efforts led by prominent firms across Web2 and Web3 industries.
Industry Leaders Driving Innovation
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Cloudflare
A co-founder of the x402 Foundation alongside Coinbase, Cloudflare has integrated x402 into its Agents SDK, enabling AI-driven transactions. Additionally, its NET Dollar—a stablecoin catering to AI agents—proves its ongoing commitment to agentic commerce. -
Google Cloud
Google’s “Agentic Payments Protocol (AP2)” enhances x402 on its A2A platform, enabling autonomous AI agent payments at scale. -
Anthropic
The developer of Claude AI tools, Anthropic, has embedded x402 into its open-source MCP protocol for efficient payments involving AI tools and datasets. -
Visa
Partnering with Cloudflare, Visa has launched the “Trusted Agent Protocol,” incorporating x402 for secure agent-led commerce transactions.
Collectively, these efforts establish x402’s foundation for full-scale adoption, bolstered by investments in infrastructure development and seamless interoperability.
Adoption Challenges
Barriers to Consumer Trust
Although x402 is advancing swiftly through initial phases, mainstream adoption faces noteworthy hurdles:
- Consumer Skepticism: Surveys by Accenture reveal that 87% of financial institutions believe customers distrust AI-driven payments, while 78% express concerns about fraudulent or unauthorized transactions.
- Enterprise Preparedness: Legacy systems, outdated fraud prevention measures, and structural inefficiencies hinder organizations from adopting agentic commerce securely and at scale—issues cited by 85% of surveyed enterprises.
Resolving these concerns is vital for x402 to transition effectively toward widespread adoption and user confidence.
Blockchain’s Role in Agentic Commerce
Gartner’s $30 trillion projection for AI agent-managed transactions by 2030 underscores blockchain’s pivotal position in facilitating agentic commerce.
Currently, x402-based payments occur predominantly on Base and Solana networks. As an interoperable solution, x402 is designed to interface seamlessly across various blockchains. This flexibility amplifies its potential impact, fostering innovation in blockchain-based payment rails while expanding the broader ecosystem.
If x402 achieves global-scale product-market fit—following in the footsteps of stablecoins—it will redefine the blockchain industry’s role in the future of commerce. By enabling agentic transactions at scale, x402 could drive profound transformation, making blockchain the backbone of tomorrow’s AI economy.
