Bitcoin, 110K Dollar Outlook Shaken by Key Weak Indicators

# Bitcoin Faces Headwinds as Key Indicators Signal Weakness, Casting Doubts on $110,000 Recovery Bitcoin(BTC) is showing bearish signals across major indicators, raising questions over its ability to break past the $110,000 resistance level. On-chain metrics and broader analyses suggest the cryptocurrency is losing upward momentum, according to blockchain and economic research. On October 27, Capriole Investments, led by Charles Edwards, reported continued declines in its proprietary “Bitcoin Macro Index,” as cited by Cointelegraph. This index employs machine learning to analyze on-chain and macroeconomic data, excluding price data, to assess Bitcoin's relative value. Charles Edwards commented on social media, stating, “The Bitcoin Macro Index is creating lower highs, leading to bearish divergence. This isn’t encouraging.” The bearish divergence began to emerge toward the end of 2023, despite Bitcoin’s price hitting new local highs. Historically, such divergence has marked potential long-term tops during bull markets, raising concerns about Bitcoin’s trajectory. # On-Chain Metrics Indicate Growing Volatility Independent analysis points to Bitcoin entering a phase of pronounced volatility in both the short and medium term. According to on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, several key metrics—including Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV), Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), and the Inter-Exchange Fund Flow Index (IFP)—indicate increased market fluctuations. Burak Kesmeci, an analyst at CryptoQuant, noted in a recent report, “These indicators show Bitcoin is facing significant short- to mid-term volatility. However, it has not yet reached an overheated phase or a cyclical top.” The IFP metric, in particular, has been concerning, remaining in bearish territory since February without signs of recovery. Kesmeci added, “A meaningful recovery in Bitcoin's downtrend can only occur if the IFP surpasses its 90-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).” # Conservative Outlook in Futures and Options Market Sentiment in Bitcoin futures and options markets also reflects a cautious outlook. Price prediction markets are skeptical about Bitcoin surging past $138,000, even by 2025—underscoring the tempered expectations from institutional and retail investors alike. # Current Price Action As of 5:35 p.m. KST on October 28, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $85,070, down 2.9% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko. Analysts suggest the cryptocurrency could face continued hurdles unless it regains momentum across both technical and on-chain indicators. The road to recovery for Bitcoin remains uncertain, as both macroeconomic challenges and weakening on-chain metrics weigh on its near-term prospects.