Wall Street Major Banks Increase Probability of U.S. Recession and Lower Growth Forecast

# Wall Street Banks Turn Pessimistic as Trump Acknowledges Recession Possibility New York—Amid remarks from President Donald Trump that do not rule out the possibility of a recession, Wall Street is experiencing heightened concerns. Major U.S. banks are increasingly revising their economic outlooks to more pessimistic forecasts, The Wall Street Journal reported on the 10th. According to the report, JPMorgan Chase has raised the likelihood of the U.S. economy entering a recession this year from the previous estimate of 30% to 40%. Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan's chief economist, stated, "There is a significant risk that the extreme policies of the U.S. administration could lead the country into a recession this year." Goldman Sachs has also drastically lowered its growth forecast for the U.S. in 2025 from 2.4% to 1.7%. Additionally, Goldman Sachs adjusted the probability of a recession within the next 12 months from 15% to 20%. Jan Hatzius, Goldman's chief economist, warned that the recession risk could increase if the Trump administration persists with its current policies despite facing worse economic indicators. Last week, Morgan Stanley had already revised down its growth forecast for the U.S. this year to 1.5%. The bank also predicts that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate will remain at around 2.5% in December, similar to the beginning of the year. pan@yna.co.kr