2024-11-19 08:44

Image source: Unblock Media
- Bitcoin experiences a temporary correction with a 6% drop before rebounding, currently trading at $91K, down 2% from its all-time high
- Overheated Futures Market Increases Bitcoin Leverage Risk
[Unblock Media]
Recently, after Bitcoin (BTC) recorded a new all-time high, there are initial signs indicating a short-term adjustment to reset the overheated futures market. From November 13 to 15, Bitcoin's price declined by 6%, marking the first adjustment period since surpassing its previous all-time high of $73,880. It has since rebounded slightly and is now trading at $91,740, down 2% from its new all-time high of $93,477.
Since Bitcoin entered the price discovery phase on November 6, maintaining the price level at $85,000 on the daily chart could sustain the bullish momentum. Bitcoin bulls are expecting a liquidity sweep at $85,000. Despite the recent decline, Bitcoin has maintained higher highs and higher lows on both short-term and long-term charts. Since November 5, it has stayed above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) levels on the hourly chart. For the bullish trend to continue, it would be ideal for Bitcoin to exhibit a liquidity sweep around the recent higher low range of $85,500.
Independent analyst Bluntz mentioned that the current Bitcoin correction could be the final stage before reaching the $100,000 level, possibly finding a bottom around the $87,000 range.
Additionally, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, the estimated futures leverage ratio in the Bitcoin/USDT perpetual market has exceeded the previous high of 270% set in May 2024, breaking a new record. Bitcoin's open interest levels are also approaching an all-time high, indicating the highest number of open leverage positions in Bitcoin's history. This serves as evidence of market overheating and highlights the need for caution due to the increased risk from the growing leverage positions.
Data from CoinGlass indicates that the largest range for immediate liquidations is around $85,750, where over $127 million worth of leveraged positions could be liquidated. Therefore, a liquidity sweep below $85,000 could be presented as a strong case.
Bitcoin's spot order book is very thin above the $73,884 price range. Since Bitcoin has been above this price range for less than 10 days, there is a lack of support and resistance around the current price. This underscores the need to closely monitor Bitcoin's price volatility and market trends.
Meanwhile, the correlation between the U.S. presidential election and the Bitcoin premium index is also noteworthy. On November 6, following Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election, the Coinbase premium index surged to its highest level since April 2024. The rising premium indicates buying pressure from U.S. retail investors, and as Bitcoin reached new all-time highs, the index gradually increased. However, on November 14, the premium decreased by 88%, indicating that some investors might be realizing slight profits or that initial spot buying is slowing down.
Bitcoin futures market analyst Byzantine General also noted that spot buying on Coinbase and Kraken continues to lead the bullish momentum. When spot buying slows down on these exchanges, Bitcoin tends to show adjustments.
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