Bitcoin Shows Resilience Amid U.S.-China Tensions: Market Dynamics Evolving

Bitcoin (BTC) has demonstrated a measured recovery following last week’s decline, spurred by optimism around easing U.S.-China tensions. Global investors are anticipating the outcome of the forthcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit in Gyeongju on October 31, where U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to deliberate on improving bilateral relations. The potential diplomatic thaw between the two economic powerhouses has injected renewed optimism into the broader financial and cryptocurrency markets.

As of 8:30 a.m. KST on October 20, Bitcoin was trading at 165.4 million won on South Korea’s Upbit exchange, marking a 1.07% increase against the previous day. On Binance, Bitcoin saw a 1.72% uptick to $108,951. While Bitcoin showed signs of recovery, the CoinDesk 20 Index—which aggregates prices of the top 20 altcoins, including Bitcoin—declined by 1.06%. Among key altcoins, Ethereum (ETH) surged by 3.23% to $4,009, while XRP gained 1.66% to reach $2.4.

Widespread Liquidations Reflect Market Volatility

Data from CoinGlass revealed significant liquidation activity in the cryptocurrency market over the past 24 hours. Approximately $87.67 million worth of Bitcoin positions were liquidated, with a staggering 84.6% being short positions. Across all digital assets, total liquidations reached $267.3 million, underscoring the high volatility that continues to define investor sentiment in the crypto market.

Trump-Xi Meeting Sparks Optimism in Geopolitical and Market Stability

The announcement of a planned meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping has catalyzed renewed market interest and optimism. During an October 20 interview with Fox News, President Trump expressed confidence in the countries’ ability to negotiate a “fair agreement” that could stabilize relations. This marks a sharp turnaround from his earlier rhetoric, which included threats of new tariffs on Chinese goods and dismissal of dialogue—remarks that sent shockwaves through markets, triggering losses of up to 99% for select altcoins and nearly $20 billion in derivative liquidations.

The confirmation of the APEC Summit meeting catalyzed a reversal in bearish sentiment. Following Trump’s comments, Bitcoin experienced a 2% price uptick, while major altcoins such as Ethereum, Binance Coin (BNB), and Solana (SOL) saw gains in the range of 3.5% to 4%. This optimism has spurred hopes of a broader market recovery, though caution remains among investors as geopolitical developments unfold.

Examining Market Trends: Optimism Meets Skepticism

The Kobi Letter, a prominent research publication, indicated that despite recent corrections, the long-term upward trajectory for cryptocurrencies appears intact. The publication highlighted that positive developments from the Trump-Xi summit could rapidly improve sentiment across the market.

Conversely, a select group of analysts has adopted a more reserved outlook. John Glover, Chief Investment Officer at digital asset lending platform Ledn, proposed that Bitcoin’s bullish phase might have reached its conclusion, referencing Elliott Wave theory for his analysis. “The five-wave upward cycle for Bitcoin is likely complete, signaling the onset of a bearish phase,” Glover noted.

Elliott Wave theory, a method of analyzing market movements through recurring wave patterns tied to investor psychology, is key to Glover’s assessment. He pointed out that Bitcoin’s meteoric rise from sub-$20,000 levels at the end of 2022 to a peak of $126,000 earlier this year could mark the completion of its fifth and final wave. The cryptocurrency’s subsequent pullback to $104,000 suggests a potential decline to a range of $70,000–$80,000, which he predicts may extend into late 2026.

Derivatives Market Signals Caution

Market intelligence from Amberdata has unveiled potential bearish sentiment among derivatives traders. September 2026 Bitcoin put options, which allow the holder to sell at a predetermined price—typically signaling expectations of price declines—are currently priced higher than call options. This pricing disparity suggests a trend of cautious hedging, reflecting fears of long-term downside risks among investors.

Declining Sentiment: Crypto Fear & Greed Index Signals Caution

The Alternative Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a popular gauge of market sentiment, plunged to 28 on October 20—a level classified as “fear.” This marked a notable drop from the previous day’s reading of 34 points, indicating enhanced selling pressure in the market. The index operates on a scale ranging from 0 to 100, where lower values represent fear and higher values indicate confidence and buying activity.

As the global financial world watches for updates from the Trump-Xi discussions at the APEC Summit, uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on cryptocurrency markets. The outcome of this important meeting could be pivotal for both geopolitical relations and digital asset trends, but investors should remain prepared for protracted volatility in the weeks and months ahead.