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BlackRock Executive's 2018 Report Resurfaces, Giving Insight into XRP’s Projected $32 Value
A resurfaced 2018 report, co-authored by Susan Athey, Stanford University professor, and Robert Mitchnick, who now serves as Managing Director and Head of Digital Assets at BlackRock, is gaining renewed traction due to its intriguing valuation model suggesting XRP’s fair value could reach $32. The analysis, originally published years ago, has paved avenues for reexamining the potential of cryptocurrencies like XRP and Bitcoin under precise economic frameworks.
The study, highlighted by The Crypto Basic on October 21, evaluated Bitcoin (BTC) and XRP not as commodities or equity-like assets but rather as innovative vehicles for value transfer and wealth storage. By employing a multifaceted valuation model, the authors factored in a total of eight critical influences—transaction volume, holding behavior, total supply metrics, issuance schedules, staking incentives, discount rates, adoption forecasts, and broader market trends.
XRP vs Bitcoin: Projecting Growth
When contrasted with Bitcoin’s projections, XRP demonstrated superior growth expectations according to the report. The researchers estimated Bitcoin’s daily transaction volumes to reach between $5.6 billion and $28.2 billion by 2030, with an accompanying total storage demand capped at $1.6 trillion. Based on these metrics, Bitcoin’s fair value was calculated to range from $13,600 to $28,100 after adjusting for a 30% probability of full market realization. The upper limit of Bitcoin’s estimate touched $93,000 under optimal conditions.
Conversely, XRP commanded significantly higher growth estimations. The authors projected XRP could achieve daily transaction volumes as high as $556 billion and storage demand peaking at $3.2 trillion. Under these conditions, XRP’s fair value was gauged between $6.37 and $32.91. However, with a 25% likelihood of these success factors materializing, the realistic adjusted valuation dropped to between $1.59 and $8.23.
XRP’s Current Landscape: Examining Market Dynamics
Despite these optimistic projections, XRP’s present-day market performance reveals stark underachievement. In 2025, Bitcoin has surpassed even the most ambitious estimates from the report, trading at over $116,000—well above the projected $93,000 ceiling. XRP, meanwhile, has only reached approximately $3 in value, lagging far behind the initial predictions.
This discrepancy has been widely attributed to ongoing legal struggles. A pivotal legal challenge emerged in December 2020 when the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed a lawsuit against Ripple Labs, alleging violations of securities laws surrounding XRP’s issuance. The protracted nature of this litigation has significantly weighed on XRP’s progress, dampening investor confidence and impeding the cryptocurrency’s ability to capture its envisioned market potential.
Furthermore, assumptions from the report regarding XRP’s dominance in global payments have yet to materialize. Ripple Labs has shifted its focus, diversifying operations toward stablecoins and supplemental financial products. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has benefitted from increased demand stemming from major institutional investments, innovations like exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and other novel use cases that have buoyed its growth trajectory.
Theoretical Frameworks: Conditional Valuations versus Realities
Significantly, the 2018 analysis should be understood as a conditional valuation exercise rather than absolute market forecasts. Crypto analytics channel "AllInCrypto," which brought renewed attention to the report, emphasized the hypothetical nature of these estimates. The study serves as an early effort to explore cryptocurrency valuation under specific assumptions rather than as definitive predictions of future behavior.
Bold theoretical models like these hold substantial value in mapping possible trajectories for emerging digital assets. However, they also underscore an urgent need to align computational projections with the dynamic forces of market realities, including regulatory evolution and adoption trends. With XRP’s development hindered by SEC filings and market complexities, the ambitions outlined in the report highlight how variable and fast-changing crypto markets can impact even the most robust valuation models.
While frameworks like this empower institutions and investors to consider hypothetical upside potential, they also underline that cryptocurrency valuation is as much about aligning expectations with real-world dynamics as it is about forecasting idealized scenarios. For XRP, its journey from theoretical valuation to market reality serves as a critical lesson in navigating the fine line between potential and performance.
