Roundhill Proposes ETFs to Let You Bet on 2028 Elections

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Roundhill Proposes ETFs to Let You Bet on 2028 Elections — Image source: Unblock Media

Innovative plan aligns financial markets with election outcomes
SEC reviewing groundbreaking ETFs tied to political predictions

On February 15, 2026, multiple outlets including Cryptopolitan, Phemex, and TradingView News reported that Roundhill Investments has filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to introduce six exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tied to the outcomes of the 2028 U.S. presidential, Senate, and House elections. The groundbreaking ETFs aim to offer investors the opportunity to speculate on these political events directly through their brokerage accounts.

The filing details a binary payout mechanism, where three ETFs are structured to pay out if Democratic candidates win the presidential, Senate, or House races, while the other three are linked to Republican victories. Shares corresponding to the winning predictions are expected to approach $1 per share, while losing shares could diminish toward zero. Notably, these ETFs are designed to persist beyond the 2028 election cycle, continuing to invest in contracts relevant to the 2032 elections.

Recent moves by U.S. regulators have laid the groundwork for this proposal. Reports highlight a pivotal decision by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which in 2024, under the leadership of its new chair Michael Selig, rolled back a previous attempt to ban political event betting. Instead, the CFTC has pivoted to promoting "responsible innovation" by updating regulatory frameworks, a shift that has enabled the consideration of financial products like Roundhill’s ETFs.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted this development as "potentially groundbreaking," underscoring how these ETFs could significantly transform prediction markets by making them more accessible to everyday investors. He described the potential integration of political speculation and financial markets as a game-changer for the industry.

Despite the promise of innovation, the filing acknowledges considerable risks. Roundhill Investments cautions investors about the uncertain regulatory environment surrounding event-based financial contracts and notes the possibility of losing the entire investment. The SEC has yet to approve this proposal, and its decision is anticipated to have far-reaching effects on market behavior as well as the intersection of politics and finance.