Harris catching up to Trump on Polymarket, intensifying US presidential race

- Harris's price rises from 33 cents to 44 cents - Trump's price drops from 66 cents to 55 cents [Unblock Media] As the U.S. presidential race intensifies, the blockchain-based betting platform Polymarket is drawing attention with Kamala Harris catching up to Donald Trump. According to Polymarket data, while Trump’s price has fallen from 66 cents to 55 cents, Harris’s price has risen from 33 cents to 44 cents. This indicates increased market confidence in Harris. These changes are not merely the result of small-scale betting. Some large bets ranging from $10,000 to $100,000 have been placed, suggesting that market participants have strong faith in Harris’s chances. When large sums are bet, it often indicates that large investors are strategically moving the market through risk management rather than individual investor expectations. Unlike other U.S. prediction platforms, Polymarket has minimal betting limits and is not subject to federal regulation, allowing for greater market movement. Recent polls and major news events have also played a significant role in these fluctuations. For instance, recent polls show an increase in Harris’s recognition and support, with positive responses in several states. For Trump, certain policies and controversies likely had a negative impact. Social media rumors also affected betting behavior. A notable example is when Elon Musk’s statement on Twitter that "Trump has a 3% edge" rapidly increased Trump’s betting odds, illustrating the influence of social media. The 2020 election provides a precedent where Joe Biden’s initial low support did not translate into a significant Republican victory, indicating that polls do not fully capture voter intent. The increased interest in Harris on Polymarket likely reflects this discrepancy, especially considering the rise in early voting participation, suggesting strategic shifts. Political betting expert Domer estimates Harris’s chances at 55-60%, arguing that polls do not adequately reflect voter changes. Early voting data shows strong Republican participation, hinting at a new strategy. As election day approaches, traders will continue to adjust their tactics. It remains to be seen whether Harris will close the gap further or if Trump will achieve a comeback. We hope this analysis helps understand the current state of the market and potential future fluctuations.