Harris catching up to Trump on Polymarket, intensifying US presidential race

Tentative Title: "US Presidential Election: Significance of Trump's Decline and Harris's Rise in Polling on Polymarket"

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Amid intensifying competition in the U.S. presidential election, it's noteworthy that Kamala Harris is catching up to Donald Trump on the blockchain-based betting platform, Polymarket. In this analysis, we will examine why this shift is occurring and what impact it may have on the upcoming election.

For Trump, his stock price on Polymarket has decreased from 66 cents to 55 cents, while Harris's stock price has risen from 33 cents to 44 cents. This indicates that the market is showing more confidence in Harris. However, this isn't just the result of small-scale bets. Some bets range from $10,000 to $100,000, meaning that market participants hold strong beliefs in Harris's potential.

Major players are selling their shares when prices rise, indicating a focus not only on winning predictions but also on risk management. This can be interpreted as strategic moves considering past trends. Additionally, issues with voting and rumors on social media are also influencing betting behaviors. These uncertainties can increase market volatility.

These movements may be related to the 2020 presidential election. At that time, Biden's approval ratings were low, but the Republicans did not achieve significant success. This suggests that polls don't fully capture the intentions of actual voters.

Political betting expert 'Domer' sees Harris's chances at 55-60% and argues that polls do not sufficiently reflect voter shifts. Early voting data shows strong participation from Republicans, hinting at a new strategy.

As election day approaches, traders will continue to adjust their tactics. Whether Harris will further narrow the gap or Trump will achieve a comeback remains to be seen. We hope that this analysis helps you understand the current state of the market and its potential fluctuations.