Whale Investor Places $17.6 Million Short Bet on XRP Amid ETF Decision Speculation

XRP, Ripple’s native cryptocurrency, is trading near $2.86, spotlighting market activity as a whale investor makes waves with a high-stakes $17.6 million short position. The move on September 28 arrives as the crypto market braces for a pivotal U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) decision on a spot cryptocurrency exchange-traded fund (ETF). This bold bet raises eyebrows and questions about its underlying strategy.

High-Risk Leverage: $17.6 Million Short Position with $2.91 Liquidation Price

On-chain analytics platform Lookonchain revealed that the whale investor, operating under the pseudonym "qwatio," entered the short position using 20x leverage. This puts the liquidation price at $2.91—just 2% above XRP's current market price—placing the position in a precarious spot where even minimal upward price movement could trigger liquidation.

Notably, this is not qwatio's first foray into ultra-high-risk trades. Data indicates that this trader previously incurred $3.4 million in losses on leveraged bets involving Bitcoin and XRP. Yet, undeterred by past missteps, the investor has once again entered the arena, drawing widespread scrutiny from traders and analysts alike.

"As the market rebounded, gambler @qwatio was partially liquidated!
He closed his short positions on $BTC and $XRP, losing $3.4M.
He then reopened a 20x short on 6.17M $XRP ($17.6M), with a liquidation price of $2.9155.
— Lookonchain (@lookonchain), September 29, 2025

Short Squeeze Risks Intensify as Short Liquidation Hits 75%

The XRP market has recently seen significant volatility. Crypto analytics firm Coinglass reports that $3.76 million in XRP positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours, of which 75% were short positions. This data reflects substantial losses for traders betting on price declines, driven by XRP’s slight upward momentum.

Such conditions amplify the probability of a short squeeze. When aggregated short positions face heavy liquidation, it can trigger forced buying activity, pushing the price up further. In this case, the whale’s short position could face compounding risk if bullish sentiment continues to build in the near term.

Strategic Contrarianism or Misstep? Betting Against XRP Ahead of ETF News

The SEC’s upcoming decision on spot cryptocurrency ETFs, including offerings tied to XRP, has injected renewed energy into the market. Notable financial organizations like Franklin Templeton have submitted applications for crypto ETFs, and sources indicate the SEC will address these proposals in October, with a November 14 deadline for final rulings.

ETF approvals are considered a watershed moment for cryptocurrencies, potentially driving institutional adoption and boosting market liquidity. An approved ETF is widely expected to catalyze bullish price movement for XRP. In light of this, the whale’s decision to short XRP appears counterintuitive.

However, some analysts argue the move could reflect the belief that the ETF optimism is "priced in." This suggests that once official news breaks, traders may engage in profit-taking, leading to temporary market corrections. By this logic, the short position could be an opportunistic attempt to capitalize on a potential "sell the news" event.

XRP Remains 22% Below All-Time High

As XRP navigates speculative trading and broader market forces, the token remains 22% below its all-time high of $3.66, hit on July 18. Its current price trajectory heavily depends on the SEC’s ETF decisions and the market impact of whale strategies.

In its analysis, crypto outlet U.Today noted the potential for long-term momentum if ETF approvals act as bullish catalysts. The publication warns, however, against highly leveraged positions due to their disproportionate risks during volatile conditions, as demonstrated by the whale’s prior losses.

A Watershed Moment for XRP

The coming weeks represent a critical juncture for XRP, as its fate intertwines with regulatory rulings and high-stakes market plays. Should the SEC greenlight cryptocurrency ETFs, the potential influx of institutional capital could permanently alter XRP’s market dynamics. However, for now, the speculative moves of traders like qwatio underscore the cryptocurrency’s inherent volatility and the unpredictable nature of leveraging high-risk bets.