Bitcoin Price Surges to $117,800: Market Eyes Further Gains Through 2024

Bitcoin (BTC) has exceeded $117,800 as of October 19, setting a one-month high and reinforcing optimism for further upside potential into 2024. Analysts remain bullish, citing healthy market conditions and long-term cycles that could extend growth well into 2026.

Bitcoin Hits One-Month High Following Bullish Market Trends

Data from CoinMarketCap reveals that Bitcoin briefly peaked at $117,888.41 around 3:50 a.m. before retracing to $116,777, eventually stabilizing near $117,000. The last comparable high was on September 23 when Bitcoin reached $116,979 but later fell to $107,790 amid broader market uncertainty.

Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, expressed confidence in Bitcoin’s trajectory, stating, "We don’t see overheating signals that typically indicate a market top," adding that "this cycle could extend into 2026." Optimism surrounding potential interest rate cuts has played a key role in Bitcoin’s resurgence, despite the cryptocurrency experiencing temporary pullbacks after the actual implementation of rate reductions by the Federal Reserve.

Increased Long Positions Drive Price Rally

Bitcoin’s recent bullish movement has largely been driven by heightened buying activity, particularly long positions activated in response to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts. On-chain metrics such as order flow indicators and cumulative volume delta (CVD) signal robust buying pressure, complemented by consistent growth in open interest (OI).

The daily trading volume surged significantly, climbing 41% from the previous day to $67 billion (~88 trillion KRW). Analysts linked this volume spike to dovish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who noted slowing job growth, a slight rise in unemployment, and creeping inflation—all factors that could prompt further easing of monetary policies.

Testing Critical Resistance Levels: Bullish Momentum Constrained

Bitcoin is currently testing the $119,000 resistance level, a key threshold for the continuation of its upward trajectory. Michael van de Poppe, a seasoned analyst, stated via X (formerly Twitter), "Bitcoin is currently testing the $119,000 resistance. A breakout could open the door to $123,700." Conversely, $114,700 and $111,900 have been identified as short-term support levels.

Other experts, such as Ali Martinez, have highlighted $115,440 as a critical support price. Martinez predicts that retaining this level could propel Bitcoin to $137,300, whereas a breach might lead to a downward correction to $93,600.

Bitcoin’s price movement has also been linked to broader market behavior, particularly correlations with the S&P 500 Index. Historically, the S&P 500 has shown an average increase of 15% within a year of Federal Reserve rate cuts, sparking speculation that Bitcoin may mirror these growth patterns during the same timeframe.

Fundamentals Signal No Signs of Overheating

Despite Bitcoin’s recent price surge, analysts remain confident that the market is far from overheating. Matthew Sigel noted that leveraged position costs in Bitcoin futures markets remain moderate, with funding rates yet to exhibit the double-digit spikes that are traditionally associated with market tops. Additionally, on-chain unrealized profit levels remain subdued, further supporting the cautious optimism of analysts.

Strength in Miner Stocks and Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle

The bullish sentiment extends to Bitcoin mining companies, many of which have witnessed substantial growth in stock valuations this year. Sigel remarked, "Many mining stocks have doubled or tripled this year," attributing part of the surge to increasing demand for artificial intelligence (AI) computation services, a key area of support for mining firms.

However, Sigel cautioned about potential short-term corrections due to heightened volatility stemming from Bitcoin’s recent price movement and its ties to AI-related stocks and broader equity indexes.

Looking ahead, Bitcoin investor sentiment remains a critical indicator to watch. Sigel noted that the greed and fear index has yet to enter "extreme greed" territory, signaling room for further growth without imminent risk of over-extension. He also linked Bitcoin’s current market environment to U.S. large-cap tech stocks, contrasting the steady fundamentals today with the volatile conditions of the 2000 dot-com bubble.

Regulatory and Macro Factors Could Boost Momentum

When asked about the duration of Bitcoin’s cycle, Sigel affirmed, "The four-year Bitcoin cycle remains intact." He pointed to midterm elections and developments in the regulatory environment as factors that could positively influence investor sentiment. These elements are anticipated to act as tailwinds for Bitcoin rather than headwinds, supporting its upward trajectory through 2024 and potentially beyond.

Bitcoin’s current price movements and market resilience underscore its robust fundamentals, setting the stage for continued bullishness as traders and institutional investors alike keep a close eye on key price thresholds and macroeconomic dynamics.