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Crude Oil Prices Drop for Second Day Amid U.S.-EU Trade Uncertainty and New Russian Energy Sanctions

Global oil prices dipped for the second day in a row as traders reacted to the ongoing U.S. tariff negotiations and the European Union's (EU) expanded sanctions on Russian energy exports.

On June 21, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for August delivery declined by $0.14, or 0.21%, settling at $67.20 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Similarly, Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, dropped $0.07, or 0.10%, to close at $69.21 per barrel for its September contracts.

U.S.-EU Trade Talks Key Driver Behind Market Volatility

Concerns surrounding the EU's trade negotiations with the U.S. intensified as European ambassadors prepare to meet this week to outline potential countermeasures in case discussions with U.S. President Joe Biden fail ahead of the pivotal August 1 deadline. President Biden has remained firm in his stance on imposing tariffs if trade disagreements persist.

Tony Sycamore, a market expert at IG Markets, commented, "Leading up to the August 1 tariff deadline, uncertainties tied to the progress of these negotiations are likely to keep oil prices under pressure." However, he added, "This week's upcoming stockpile data could reveal supply shortages, offering potential support to prices. For now, oil prices are anticipated to range between $64 and $70 per barrel."

EU Strengthens Sanctions on Russian Energy Exports

The EU has officially adopted its 18th sanctions package targeting Russia. Key measures include a further reduction in the price cap on Russian crude oil exports and restrictions impacting large-scale refining operations in India. However, comprehensive bans on the importation of Russian diesel remain deferred until January next year.

Analysts at ING remarked, "The most significant aspect of this sanctions package may be the prohibition on importing refined Russian petroleum products through third-party nations." They cautioned, though, that "monitoring and enforcing these restrictions will pose significant logistical challenges."

China Pushes Back on EU Sanctions

China, a country directly affected by the latest EU sanctions, has voiced strong opposition after two Chinese banks and several enterprises were included in the punitive measures. Beijing reiterated its commitment to "firmly safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese businesses and financial institutions" and pledged to enact countermeasures in response.

Russia's Energy Exports Adapt to New Markets

Despite relentless sanctions from the West, Russia has managed to redirect much of its oil exports to new buyers, particularly China and India, since the outbreak of the Ukraine conflict. These two nations have emerged as crucial lifelines for Russia's energy sector, offsetting losses from markets in Europe and other Western countries.

Meanwhile, investors remain laser-focused on the interplay of key market forces, including U.S.-EU trade negotiations, the ripple effects of new sanctions on Russia, and resulting shifts in global supply chains. With geopolitical uncertainties lingering, crude oil prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term.

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