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Who Will Succeed Jerome Powell? Betting Markets Heat Up as Polymarket Unveils Top Candidates
The debate over who will replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is no longer confined to policy experts—it has become a topic of widespread interest, fueled by speculation in betting markets. Polymarket, one of the leading prediction market platforms, has spotlighted several likely contenders, capturing attention with its calculated odds. The contenders' policy views and alignment with the current U.S. administration's priorities drive much of this speculation.
Kevin Warsh Leading the Race with Strong Odds
Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor, has emerged as the frontrunner with a notable 24% probability on Polymarket. Warsh served as a governor from 2006 to 2011 and was previously passed over for the position in favor of Powell during Donald Trump’s presidency in 2017. Known for his advocacy of rate cuts, Warsh has gone on record claiming that tariffs do not fuel inflation.
Earlier this month, Warsh emphasized the need for immediate rate reductions during an interview with Fox Business. However, some experts have expressed doubts about his qualifications. Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro labeled Warsh as one of the least favorable options for the role. Despite these reservations, Warsh countered critics by calling for a central bank overhaul. As he stated in a CNBC interview, “A central bank that has lost credibility does not require continuity. It needs change.”
Scott Bessent: The Administration’s Trusted Candidate
Another strong contender is Scott Bessent, a senior fiscal advisor to the president, currently sitting at 20% betting odds. Former President Trump has reportedly identified Bessent as a potential Fed chair replacement, though Trump is said to prefer Bessent to continue in his current advisory position.
Initially viewed as a stable influence on the financial markets, Bessent has consistently aligned with the administration’s economic positions, even during moments of significant market volatility. However, economists like Nobel laureate Paul Krugman remain skeptical. Krugman questioned Bessent's ability to maintain the Federal Reserve’s autonomy, remarking, “Anyone chosen by Trump will support all of Trump’s ideas.”
Kevin Hassett: Political Economist with Stiff Opposition
Kevin Hassett, the current chair of the National Economic Council, ranks third in Polymarket’s predictions with a 12% probability. Hassett has publicly expressed criticism of the Federal Reserve's expenditures, particularly the budget for modernizing its headquarters. He has also voiced support for replacing Powell.
Despite Hassett’s economic expertise, analysts warn that his deep political ties could complicate Senate confirmation proceedings. His alignment with key political players may raise concerns among lawmakers prioritizing the central bank's institutional independence.
Christopher Waller: The Independent Dark Horse
With a 12% chance of gaining the position, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller is a wildcard in the competition. While not widely discussed initially, Waller has gained traction due to his recent statements highlighting a slowdown in private-sector hiring. He also advocated for a rate cut during the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Investors and analysts alike are drawn to Waller's academic rigor and his reputation for steering clear of political entanglements, which distinguishes him from other contenders. His low-profile yet consistent track record makes him an intriguing candidate to watch in this race.
Powell’s Future and the Politicization of the Federal Reserve
Polymarket’s data also sheds light on shifting dynamics surrounding Powell's tenure. Odds suggest there’s a 32% likelihood that Powell won’t be replaced by December 31 of this year.
This speculation underscores ongoing political tension surrounding the Federal Reserve's leadership. Observers fear these developments could compromise the institution's historic independence. With the intersection of monetary policy and political ambitions growing increasingly blurred, the next few months will likely reveal significant developments concerning the Fed’s future direction and leadership.
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