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U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Decline for Third Week in a Row

The U.S. labor market continues to show resilience as initial jobless claims fell for the third consecutive week, according to the latest data from the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL). For the week ending July 12, seasonally adjusted initial claims totaled 221,000—a drop of 7,000 from the prior week. This steady decline highlights the ongoing tightness in the labor market despite broader economic concerns.

However, the DOL revised the previous week’s numbers slightly upward, from 227,000 to 228,000. Meanwhile, the four-week moving average, a more stable measure of claims data that smooths out weekly fluctuations, fell by 6,250 to reach 229,500—the lowest level since December 2024.

Mixed Signals From Continuing Claims and Unemployment Rate

Continuing unemployment claims, which reflect the total number of individuals receiving jobless benefits, rose modestly by 2,000 to 1.956 million, seasonally adjusted. The four-week moving average for continuing claims also climbed, up 4,750 to 1.9575 million—the highest figure reported since November 2021.

The insured unemployment rate, a measure of the percentage of the workforce currently claiming benefits, remained steady at 1.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis. However, the unadjusted rate ticked up by 0.1 percentage point to 1.3%. The Labor Department further noted that ongoing claims, including federal employees and veterans, experienced a slight increase, though the total weekly count dropped by 4,070 to 1,925,487. Despite these mixed trends, analysts suggest the labor market's core fundamentals remain strong.

Manufacturing States Witness Spike in Layoffs

Unadjusted initial jobless claims rose significantly week-over-week, climbing to 260,900—an increase of 19,539. This rise was largely driven by layoffs concentrated in manufacturing-heavy states. Michigan led the surge with 8,854 additional claims, followed by Tennessee (+3,039), Kentucky (+2,982), New York (+2,279), and Ohio (+1,889).

The layoffs in Michigan were primarily observed in the manufacturing and business administration sectors. Meanwhile, in New York, affected industries included transportation, education, and healthcare.

On the other hand, several states experienced declines in claims, signaling localized labor strength. For instance, New Jersey reported 4,193 fewer claims, Nevada saw a drop of 2,091, and Texas reported a reduction of 1,163.

Experts Attribute Rising Claims to Seasonal Factors, Labor Market Remains Strong

Economists note that the recent spike in jobless claims in manufacturing regions is primarily due to temporary, seasonal disruptions rather than underlying structural issues in the labor market.

“An uptick in unemployment claims is often linked to seasonal factors such as factory retooling and layoffs during slow periods,” explained one labor market analyst. “This doesn’t indicate any long-term weakening in the U.S. job market.” Analysts also underscored that continuing claims remain at historically low levels, further emphasizing the market’s resilience.

The recent decline in inflationary indicators like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) is reinforcing optimism about easing inflation pressures. This, in turn, is fueling speculation that the Federal Reserve may pause or even cut interest rates during its September meeting. However, experts caution that while labor market data is closely monitored, it is unlikely to directly alter the Fed’s monetary policy decisions in the near term.

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