Predicting Altcoin Season Using the ISM Index – Insights from Raoul Pal

# Bitcoin in a Bullish Phase; Altcoin Season Expected as ISM Index Recovers Currently, Bitcoin is navigating the second phase of its bullish cycle, with predictions of an upcoming altcoin season pegged to the ISM Manufacturing Index surpassing the 50 mark. This insight comes from macroeconomic analyst Raoul Pal, renowned for his analysis of digital asset markets within global liquidity contexts. Pal’s research reveals a strong correlation between Bitcoin prices and global liquidity levels. Since 2013, Pal's research indicates that about 90% of Bitcoin's price fluctuations can be attributed to global liquidity changes. Factors such as a weaker U.S. dollar and easing financial conditions typically boost global liquidity, thereby driving asset prices higher. A depreciating dollar is particularly highlighted as a significant catalyst for Bitcoin price rallies. Tech assets and Bitcoin are standout beneficiaries of increased liquidity. Nasdaq indices, notably, show a 95-97% correlation with global liquidity trends. This prompts the question: When will altcoin season—and what Pal calls the “Banana Zone”—initiate? # Liquidity's Influence on Altcoin Season Pal argues that altcoin season, characterized by higher-risk investments compared to Bitcoin, also emerges with rising global liquidity. Improved financial conditions often drive recoveries in business cycles, with the ISM Manufacturing Index acting as a leading indicator. Pal notes that financial condition indicators typically precede the ISM Index by about nine months. Once the ISM Index surpasses 50, indicating manufacturing expansion, the “altcoin season” could begin. The "Banana Zone," as dubbed by Pal, marks a phase where investors venture into riskier assets like small-cap stocks, emerging market equities, art, and NFTs. This shift reflects increased risk appetite, driven by broader global liquidity flows. # Bitcoin's Outlook and Summer Market Dynamics Pal expects Bitcoin to surpass $140,000 by July but anticipates a period of dollar consolidation around July and August, which could temporarily plateau global M2 liquidity growth. During this phase, Bitcoin is projected to experience a brief adjustment. Pal considers this a mid-cycle correction rather than a reversal of the primary upward trend. After this pause, he predicts an entry into the “Banana Zone,” where altcoins and other high-risk assets are likely to perform well. # Broader Impact of Global Liquidity In summary, global liquidity affects not just Bitcoin but a wide range of asset classes, including the Nasdaq, small-cap stocks, emerging market equities, fine art, and NFTs. Pal suggests substantial changes in the digital asset market could start to take shape between summer and fall this year. For an in-depth look at Raoul Pal’s detailed analysis, listen to the audio version of his insights at the link below: [Click Here to Access the Audio](https://www.blockmedia.co.kr/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/금융-시스템-유동성-문제.wav)