"US Forecast Platforms Predict Negative Growth for the Economy"

Investors Predict U.S. Economic Downturn Amid Deteriorating Forecasts The U.S. economic outlook is increasingly bleak, with prediction platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi forecasting a slowdown in growth. Recent data from these platforms reveal a significant decline in U.S. GDP growth expectations. # Sharp Decline in U.S. Growth Forecasts On October 29, Kalshi, a derivatives exchange, adjusted the forecasted U.S. economic growth rate from 0.5% the previous day to -0.4%. Similarly, Polymarket estimated a 70% chance of economic contraction. Despite positive GDP growth every quarter since 2022, this could signal an impending recession. # Canadian Prime Minister’s Speech Raises Concerns This decline in forecasts follows a controversial announcement by Mark Carney, Canada's newly elected Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader. In his victory speech in Ottawa, Carney pledged a tough stance against the U.S. in ongoing trade disputes, sparking concerns about economic repercussions. “We will sit down with President Trump to discuss the future of economic and security relations between our two sovereign nations,” Carney said, adding, “The old relationship with the U.S. is now over. While we’ve overcome the shock of America’s betrayal, the lessons learned must not be forgotten.” # U.S. GDP Data in Focus Market participants are eagerly awaiting the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) GDP report, set for release on October 30. This report is anticipated to provide critical insights into the economic impact of President Donald Trump’s trade policies and could shape future forecasts. # Prediction Markets: Proven Accuracy Platforms like Polymarket operate by trading contracts tied to specific events, with prices varying based on outcomes. These prediction markets have emerged as reliable indicators of public opinion, often surpassing traditional polling methods. In 2020, these platforms accurately predicted President Trump’s re-election loss and Republican congressional victories. Investors and market watchers will closely monitor these platforms and forthcoming economic data as the U.S. faces increasing uncertainties on both economic and geopolitical fronts.