SpaceX Eyes $1.75 Trillion IPO as Analysts Warn of Risks

• Company seeks unprecedented valuation over 100 times revenue despite sizable operating losses and uncertain fundamentals.
• Analysts cite poor mega-IPO track records and "narrative premium" as central risks; Starlink income stands out as a rare profit center.

On June 5, 2026 (UTC), CoinDesk reported that SpaceX is preparing to launch the largest IPO in U.S. history on June 12, targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation. That figure exceeds 100 times current revenue—outpacing all S&P 500 constituents and recent major tech listings. Morningstar, via Reuters, estimates SpaceX’s intrinsic value at $780 billion, less than half of the IPO target, calling the offering “significantly overvalued.”

Financial disclosures show SpaceX suffered substantial operating losses, mainly from its artificial intelligence subsidiary, xAI. For Q1 2026, the company logged a $1.9 billion operating loss, with xAI accounting for $2.5 billion in losses for the quarter. By contrast, Starlink provided $4.4 billion in operating income, marking ongoing profitability within SpaceX’s broader business.

Recent mega-IPOs add further caution. On June 4, The Motley Fool reported that tech IPOs launching above 100 times sales historically shed 75% from their peaks—a trend evident in data on more than 100 tech debutantes.

PitchBook, as cited by Bitget, identifies that SpaceX’s valuation climb above $1.5 trillion is largely a “narrative premium.” Optimism surrounding Elon Musk, emerging AI technology, and ambitious future projects boost the price, but these factors have yet to deliver proven long-term returns, especially since xAI remains deep in the red.

A recent data point from Anthropic’s funding round highlights the valuation gap. Anthropic, earning $47 billion in annualized revenue, was valued at $965 billion—about 20 times sales. In contrast, xAI’s contribution to SpaceX’s worth is higher but loss-making, per The Motley Fool.

BBC and Reuters report that major banks are heavily marketing the deal to wealthy investors, despite analyst hesitation. Starlink’s steady profits underpin some optimism, but most experts remain cautious regarding the overall pricing, citing fundamentals and poor outcomes for previous mega-IPOs.

CNBC and Reuters note a consensus among analysts: SpaceX’s IPO represents a high-risk proposition. The company blends unmatched market hype with elevated valuation worries, entrenched losses, and a heavy bet on future potential rather than current profitability.