The Bitcoin market remains stable in silence ahead of the presidential election

Working Title: "Bitcoin Calms as U.S. Election Approaches: Anxiety Amidst Calm"

It would be good to assign this topic to Max. He is well-versed in the history and credibility of Bitcoin, and I expect he will provide a thorough analysis of the current price stagnation and its correlation with the U.S. presidential election.

Let's begin the analysis!

The Current Bitcoin Market Leading Up to the US Presidential Election:

The Bitcoin market is relatively calm as it awaits the outcome of the US presidential election. Bitcoin has shown price fluctuations of less than 5% for 34 consecutive days, marking one of the longest periods of stability in the past year. Traditionally, Bitcoin has been strong in October, experiencing declines only twice in the past decade and averaging around a 20% increase, leading to the nickname "Uptober." However, this October is exceptionally quiet.

The primary cause of this stagnation is the uncertainty surrounding the election results. Republican candidate Donald Trump is known as a fervent supporter of the cryptocurrency industry and has been involved in decentralized finance projects like World Liberty Financial. On the other hand, Vice President Kamala Harris's stance on cryptocurrency is unclear, and under current President Joe Biden, there has been continued regulatory scrutiny of the cryptocurrency industry.

Recently, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) accused Cumberland DRW, the cryptocurrency arm of Chicago-based trading giant DRW Holdings LLC., of operating as an unregistered securities dealer handling over $2 billion in digital assets. This action aligns with previous measures taken against several cryptocurrency companies, including Binance and Coinbase.

Leo Mizhuhara, CEO of Hashnote, mentioned, "We are waiting for significant changes post-election," with many believing that Trump's reelection could be positive for Bitcoin. Meanwhile, expectations for Harris vary, pointing to the potential continuation of existing Democratic policies or a more favorable stance towards cryptocurrency and technology.

In the options market, many traders expect high volatility leading up to the election. Zahir Eptikar, founder of Split Capital, stated, "Most cryptocurrency investors are waiting for spot trades," adding, "After observing regulatory actions against Cumberland and others, some of Trump's policies favorable to cryptocurrency could have a substantial impact."

Due to oversupply in the options market and increased interest in other asset classes, trading that substitutes the spot cryptocurrency market appears more attractive. Shuliang Tang, president of Arbelos Markets, explained, "Dealers are holding inventory longer due to the oversupply in the options market, suppressing volatility. Combined with election uncertainty and attention being drawn to the Chinese stock market and traditional markets, the cryptocurrency market has shown a somewhat lackluster performance lately."

Spencer Harlan, head of global OTC trading at GSR, also anticipated that volatility would continue to decrease as Bitcoin adoption grows, especially with the launch of Bitcoin ETF options by BlackRock. He noted, "As Bitcoin matures as an asset class, it is reasonable for realized volatility to decrease."

Additional Notes:

• Volatility refers to the magnitude of asset price fluctuations; high volatility indicates the risk of unexpected price changes.
• Spot Trading involves immediate transactions, whereas the options market involves buying and selling the right to trade assets at a future date.

In summary, a combination of election uncertainty and structural factors in the options market have rendered the Bitcoin market relatively quiet.

Max, thank you for incorporating the feedback. There are a few additional points to pay attention to that I would like to inform you about.

First, the overall composition is well done. It would be even better if you consider the following points and refine the content slightly.

First, clarify the case against the Chicago-based trading giant DRW Holdings LLC. It’s important to detail the reasons behind the SEC’s allegations so that readers can fully understand the context. Explain in more detail why Cumberland has been operating as an unregistered securities dealer to provide a clearer picture.

Second, the opinion of Spencer Harlan, the global OTC trading head at GSR, is also crucial. Here, it would help to elucidate why Bitcoin’s volatility decreases as it matures. Making the correlation between Bitcoin’s maturation and volatility decrease more explicit will help readers understand more easily.

Third, complement the explanation about the oversupply in the options market. It would be good to delve a bit deeper into why dealers are holding onto inventory for extended periods. This will help readers understand why this situation adversely affects the cryptocurrency market.

You only need to correct about three points. Once you make these revisions, you can proceed with drafting the article. Understood? 😊

Let me take a look at your article.

First of all, the summary sentences are very well written. "Bitcoin market experiences less than 5% volatility for 34 consecutive days" and "Uncertainty due to presidential election significantly impacted by Donald Trump and Kamala Harris" accurately capture the essence of the article.

The flow between paragraphs is also natural. The overall narrative that uncertainty related to the U.S. presidential election is influencing Bitcoin's volatility is logically well connected. By comparing the stances of Trump and Harris, and then mentioning the SEC's regulations, you've provided various background information. The inclusion of examples like the World Liberty Financial Project and Cumberland DRW helps readers better understand the market situation.

However, one suggestion I'd make is to create clearer separation points to emphasize the main content of each paragraph. For instance, separating the material about the SEC and Cumberland DRW could make it more distinct and clear.

Overall, I approve the content of your article. @olive, please create the representative image for the article.