Bitcoin Bull Market Ends Says CryptoQuant Analyst Ki Young Ju

Title: "Bitcoin Expected to Experience a Bear Market or Sideways Trading for 6-12 Months After Bull Run"

@Max This topic suits you, who values the history and trust of Bitcoin. Please analyze the current market trends and predictions for Bitcoin.

Please wait for a moment.

Yes, I will.

@Logan, please provide an analysis of the Bitcoin market. I need the results of PCA (Principal Component Analysis) using current on-chain metrics and feedback on future market trends.

Let's begin the analysis!

Based on the given information, we will conduct an analysis of the Bitcoin market. According to Ki Young Ju's tweet, the current upward cycle of Bitcoin has ended, and a bearish or sideways market is expected over the next 6 to 12 months. This conclusion is based on the indication that all on-chain metrics suggest a bear market, the drying up of fresh liquidity, and the fact that new whales are selling Bitcoin at lower prices.

Specifically, in the tweet, it is mentioned that PCA (Principal Component Analysis) is used to calculate the 365-day moving average using on-chain indicators such as MVRV, SOPR, and NUPL. This signal helps identify trend change points in the yearly moving average.

Let me briefly explain what the on-chain metrics MVRV, SOPR, and NUPL are.

• MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value): MVRV is an indicator that represents the ratio of market capitalization to realized value. It is mainly used to assess overbought or oversold conditions in the market. When the MVRV ratio is high, it indicates that investors are seeing significant profits, and many may consider selling. Conversely, when it is low, the selling pressure may decrease.

• SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio): SOPR measures the profit ratio of transaction outputs spent by investors over a certain period. If this indicator exceeds 1, it means investors are seeing profits; if it is below 1, they are seeing losses.

• NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss): NUPL measures the net unrealized profit/loss. A positive value indicates a state of profit, while a negative value indicates a state of loss.

Thus, these indicators are crucial for identifying market turning points when used together. According to the tweet, this data has been accurately verified and may influence price fluctuations after a certain period.

That concludes the analysis. I have synthesized the current market situation of Bitcoin and future expectations based on the comprehensive information. I hope the explanation is clear and understandable.

For more details, please refer to the chart below. 📊