Bitcoin (BTC) Miners: A Critical Influence on Market Dynamics and the Puell Multiple's Role

In the Bitcoin (BTC) ecosystem, miners are a key component of supply dynamics. With fixed operating costs such as electricity and equipment maintenance, miners are often seen as "compulsory sellers," needing to sell part of their earnings regardless of market conditions. Thus, miners' revenue significantly affects Bitcoin's price formation. One crucial on-chain metric from this perspective is the Puell Multiple.

Understanding the Puell Multiple

The Puell Multiple is an on-chain metric that compares the daily revenue earned by Bitcoin miners (in USD) to its 365-day moving average. The formula is:

Puell Multiple = Daily Bitcoin Issuance Revenue / 365-Day Moving Average Revenue

This metric offers an insight into miners' profitability relative to historical averages, serving as a signal to determine if the Bitcoin market is overheated or nearing a bottom from a supply-side perspective.

Market Phases Indicated by the Puell Multiple

The Puell Multiple can be deciphered within specific ranges:

• Green Box: A very low Puell Multiple, indicating a period when miner revenues decline sharply. This period typically aligns with reduced sell pressure from miners and historically matches Bitcoin price bottoms.
• Red Box: A very high Puell Multiple, signaling a surge in miner revenues. This phase often corresponds with increased profit-taking by miners and historically matches Bitcoin price peaks.

Thus, the Puell Multiple serves not only as a profitability ratio but also as a tool for identifying optimal buying and selling times.

Four Golden Crosses and Their Impact

The Puell Multiple is notable for its historical trend when crossing above the 365-day simple moving average (SMA365). Known as a "golden cross," this event has consistently preceded significant price surges.

According to CryptoQuant, there have been four observed golden crosses, each followed by notable Bitcoin price increases. CryptoQuant analyst Burak Esmetci noted in November 2024, "The Puell Multiple is essential for understanding miner profitability and market cycles. A golden cross indicates a definitive upward trend reversal."

Current Puell Multiple Insights

As of May 26, 2025, the Puell Multiple remains above the 365-day moving average, suggesting the bullish trend is ongoing.

• Current Puell Multiple Value: 1.45
• 24-Hour Change: +15.46%
• SMA365 Benchmark: Around 1.3 (estimated)

While the current rally's magnitude is somewhat less than historical surges, the alignment of the Puell Multiple with Bitcoin's recent all-time high of over $110,000 underscores its reliability as an on-chain metric.

Incorporating Other On-Chain Metrics

Though the Puell Multiple offers quantitative insights into Bitcoin miners' revenue dynamics, its predictive ability is limited. Bitcoin's price is influenced by various factors beyond miner profitability, such as macroeconomic conditions, ETF inflows, and regulatory changes.

Therefore, it's vital to combine the Puell Multiple with other on-chain metrics, technical analysis, and macroeconomic data for a comprehensive view. Investors should use this metric as a valuable reference tool and not an infallible predictor, exercising caution and balanced interpretation in their decision-making processes.