Bitcoin (BTC): Post U.S.-China Trade Agreement Analysis - Safe Haven or Risky Bet?

# Bitcoin’s Role as a Safe Haven Could Face a Test with US-China Trade Deal, Analysts Predict Analysts suggest that the possible announcement of a trade agreement between the United States and China could test Bitcoin’s (BTC) status as a safe haven asset. Earlier this month, U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements caused equity markets to plunge, yet Bitcoin displayed significant resilience, outperforming traditional financial instruments. A report by CoinTelegraph highlighted that cryptocurrency trader 'Daan Crypto' observed on May 11 that Bitcoin initially dropped to nearly $75,000 but rebounded by almost 27% within a month, reaching up to $95,000. In the same period, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices experienced declines. Some market observers point to Bitcoin’s rise as a means to bypass tariffs. However, experts caution that this bullish trend may not continue after a trade deal is announced. “Theoretically, if trade uncertainties have driven BTC's strength, this momentum should decrease once a deal, especially involving China, is finalized,” market analysts commented. # Market Reactions to the Trade Deal: New Rally or Profit-Taking? Bitcoin has shown strong performance following President Trump’s tariff declaration, referred to as a "day of liberation." However, despite the White House announcing on May 11 that “substantial progress” had been made in bilateral trade talks, an official deal is still pending. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, “Details will be revealed tomorrow, and discussions were productive.” Daan Crypto suggested that if Bitcoin continues to rally post-deal, it might indicate that the direct impact of tariffs on Bitcoin’s use has been exaggerated. "Should Bitcoin outperform after the trade agreement, it would indicate that tariffs have a minimal role in BTC’s utility," he remarked. Conversely, some analysts predict further upside for Bitcoin if a trade deal is reached, possibly supported by the potential for interest rate cuts. Jeff Mei, COO of BTSE, told CoinTelegraph, “As the U.S.-China trade agreement nears, institutional investors are becoming less wary about allocating capital to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.” Jupiter Zheng, a researcher at HashKey Capital, pointed to the broader implications of a trade deal. "A U.S.-China trade agreement symbolizes stability in global markets, which could drive investors to seek growth opportunities, thus channeling capital into alternative assets like Bitcoin," Zheng said. He also noted that Bitcoin could potentially reach new all-time highs, particularly if the agreement weakens the U.S. dollar or revitalizes emerging market liquidity. Market analyst Will Clemente took a more cautious stance via X (formerly Twitter), stating, "Only a concrete and definitive trade deal announcement seems capable of sustaining Bitcoin’s current bullish momentum. Right now, Bitcoin’s trajectory feels a bit stagnant." As anticipation mounts over an official trade deal announcement, investors and market participants are closely monitoring Bitcoin to assess its resilience in volatile macroeconomic conditions.