U.S. Treasury Market Volatility Hits 4-Month High … Potential to Slow Bitcoin Recovery

# Volatility in U.S. Treasury Market Reaches Four-Month High, Potentially Affecting Bitcoin Rally *By Lee Jeong-hwa, Block Media* — Volatility in the U.S. Treasury market has soared to a four-month high, raising concerns over its potential impact on the anticipated recovery of Bitcoin (BTC) prices, according to a CoinDesk analysis on the 12th. # Inflation Eases, Bitcoin Expected to Break $90,000 The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February showed a lower-than-expected increase, heightening the possibility of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Consequently, some analysts predict Bitcoin prices could surpass $90,000. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $82,000. Matt Mena, a cryptocurrency research strategist at 21Shares, analyzed, "With inflation easing and recession fears persisting but not worsening, Bitcoin breaking $90,000 might be imminent." # Rising Treasury Volatility Expands Market Risks However, there are warnings that this upward trend could be slower than expected. The Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate (MOVE) index, which measures volatility in the U.S. Treasury market, rose to 115, the highest level since November 6 last year. This is a 38% surge over the past three weeks. The MOVE index gauges the 30-day volatility of the U.S. Treasury market and impacts financial market liquidity and leverage. Increased Treasury volatility can spread risk-averse sentiment in financial markets, potentially dampening investor appetite for risky assets. # Potential Slowdown in BTC Rise Compared to Historical Examples Following the U.S. presidential election on November 4 last year, the decline in the MOVE index improved financial market liquidity, causing Bitcoin to spike from $70,000 to $108,000. However, as Treasury volatility increased again, BTC's upward momentum peaked and slowed between December and January.