Analysis of the Possibility of Bitcoin Price Surpassing $70K

Factors for Bitcoin Price Increase: Interest Rate Cut, US Presidential Election, Miner Revenue Increase Factors for Bitcoin Price Decrease: Global Economic Uncertainty, Miner Selling Pressure [Unblock Media] Recently, there has been discussion about the possibility of Bitcoin's price reaching the psychological resistance level of $70,000. Various factors, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, the results of the US presidential election, increased revenues for Bitcoin miners, and strong demand for spot ETFs, influence the rise in Bitcoin prices. First, the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts are increasing risk appetite among investors. In a low-interest-rate environment, relatively high-risk assets become more attractive for investment. However, global economic uncertainty, high selling pressure from Bitcoin miners, low hash rate profitability, and the outcome of the US presidential election are significant factors that could limit Bitcoin's price. Currently, Bitcoin ranks within the top 10 in market capitalization worldwide, standing shoulder to shoulder with giant companies such as TSMC, Berkshire Hathaway, Tesla, and Walmart. Nonetheless, with traditional assets offering stable returns and fixed-income yields at 4.7%, investors are not showing significant interest in Bitcoin. This suggests that investors might be waiting for substantial signals to pursue the $70,000 target price. The upcoming US presidential election could influence Bitcoin's adoption trajectory. Vice President Kamala Harris favors strict regulations to protect individual investors, which could negatively impact the Bitcoin market. On the other hand, former President Donald Trump has a more constructive stance on integrating digital assets into the traditional financial system. These policy differences between the two candidates could significantly affect Bitcoin adoption. Additionally, concerns are arising in the Bitcoin mining sector. Miners are recording daily revenues of about $49 per PH/s, a figure that has decreased by approximately 50% since the April halving. Many miners are facing financial difficulties, with some forced to sell BTC to maintain mining profitability. Currently, miners hold 1.8 million BTC, equivalent to about $122.4 billion. Luxor Technology's COO, Ethan Vera, stated that miners are masking poor industry conditions through shareholder dilution. On-chain data also fails to dispel concerns. The 7-day average of active Bitcoin addresses has remained almost unchanged over the past six months. Similar to stagnant Google search volumes, this indicates limited public interest. Exchange deposits are currently estimated to be between 1.9 million and 3 million BTC, amounting to approximately $129.2 billion. Even with ETFs accumulating around $2 billion monthly, this might not entirely deplete the supply. Therefore, the substantial amount of BTC still on exchanges could apply additional selling pressure on Bitcoin's price. In conclusion, for Bitcoin's price to break through $70,000, a combination of factors is required, including interest rate cuts, improved mining profitability, and robust ETF accumulation.