Donald Trump chances of winning exceed 53% On Polymarket

- Trump's Winning Probability Surpasses 53%, Continues to Rise - Active Trading of Trump-related Stocks on Polymarket [Unblock Media] Currently, Donald Trump's winning probability on Polymarket has surpassed 53% and is on the rise. This upward trend is closely related to the strategic buying activities of a user known as 'Fredi9999'. Political betting expert Domer highlighted the massive interest 'Fredi9999' shows in Pennsylvania, holding 2.3 million Trump stocks. This account was created on June 22, which almost coincides with the time Fredi9999 reportedly gathered information suggesting that Elon Musk might support Trump, according to Domer. However, Domer pointed out that this user is likely a wealthy and tech-savvy Trump supporter, much like Musk. John Stefanidis, CEO of Real World Gaming, mentioned that over time, Polymarket's nature would reflect genuine public opinion. The Polymarket mechanism is simple: stock prices trade between $0 and $1. For example, if a candidate’s stock price is 63 cents, it signifies that the candidate’s winning probability is assessed at 63%. Currently, Trump's upward trend appears to have little connection with opinion polls or major campaign activities. Instead, it is analyzed that emotional betting and speculative behavior by some users have led to the rise. Adam Cochran, a partner at Cinneamhain Ventures, stated that accounts consistently supporting Trump exist, causing irrational bets. This can potentially create a feedback loop that distorts market outcomes. Nate Silver recently mentioned that the recent surge is merely due to market participants' boredom and speculative trading. This observation aligns with Adam Cochran's analysis. Silver also added that investors are increasing Trump's winning probability through emotional and speculative trading. In conclusion, the current rise in Trump stock on Polymarket is a result of personal beliefs and speculative tendencies rather than opinion polls or actual campaign circumstances. It is likely to adjust once public opinion begins to be reflected.