BlackRock Bitcoin Spot ETF Launch: $170K BTC in Sight?

- BlackRock's Bitcoin Spot ETF Option Debut Records $1.9 Billion in Trading Volume - The biggest question: Will IBIT options activity push Bitcoin to $170K?, Traders Place High-Risk Bets [Unblock Media] The Bitcoin spot ETF option (iShares Bitcoin Trust, IBIT) from BlackRock was launched on November 19, and it recorded a trading volume of $1.9 billion on its first trading day. Several analysts on the X platform evaluated this launch as a success, noting a significant imbalance in option contracts. There were 288,740 call (buy) options compared to 64,970 put (sell) options, with call options outnumbering put options by 4.4 times. This indicates that traders are anticipating a rise in Bitcoin prices. Some contracts project Bitcoin surpassing $170K. Although some low-cost option traders are hoping for a dramatic increase in Bitcoin’s price, the likelihood of it reaching $170K is very slim. Options are financial instruments used to hedge risk or bet on price movements without directly purchasing the stock. There were 9,500 contracts for the December 20 expiration $100 call option, priced at just $0.15 each, indicating a bet on a surge in Bitcoin's price, albeit at a very low cost. According to "CoinDesk," the increased participation of institutional investors in the options market was cited as a primary reason for the price rise expectations. "CryptoSlate" data also indicated a high correlation between option market data, open interest, and Bitcoin price volatility. Meanwhile, advanced traders can use various strategies to capitalize on expected Bitcoin price increases. Strategies like 'synthetic long' or 'covered call' allow for trading as if owning Bitcoin without actually holding it. A 'bull call spread' strategy predicts future price movements of the futures. By buying a $53 call for $6.20 and selling a $58 call for $4.10, the net cost is $2.10. If Bitcoin reaches $58, this strategy yields a profit of $2.90. In summary, there is an outstanding question of whether IBIT's option activity can push Bitcoin to $170K. This price prediction is extremely rare and driven by high-risk, high-reward trades. For February and May 2025 IBIT contracts, the call-to-put ratio was 6.7:1, indicating considerable speculative betting. However, the probability of reaching such a high figure is low. There is also curiosity regarding how many IBIT shares are allocated per Bitcoin. While options allow for potential high returns with small investments, they can expire worthless if the expectations are not met. Bitcoin spot ETFs and their options offer new ways to generate income, but understanding the mechanisms and probabilities is crucial.